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Climate Change: Evidence and Causes (PDF Booklet)
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Climate Change: Evidence and Causes (PDF Booklet) [Format Kindle]

The National Academy of Sciences

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Descriptions du produit

Présentation de l'éditeur

Climate Change: Evidence and Causes is a jointly produced publication of The US National Academy of Sciences and The Royal Society. Written by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists and reviewed by climate scientists and others, the publication is intended as a brief, readable reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and other individuals seeking authoritative information on the some of the questions that continue to be asked.

Climate Change makes clear what is well-established and where understanding is still developing. It echoes and builds upon the long history of climate-related work from both national academies, as well as on the newest climate-change assessment from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It touches on current areas of active debate and ongoing research, such as the link between ocean heat content and the rate of warming.

Détails sur le produit

  • Format : Format Kindle
  • Taille du fichier : 2999 KB
  • Nombre de pages de l'édition imprimée : 63 pages
  • Editeur : National Academies Press (11 mars 2014)
  • Vendu par : Amazon Media EU S.à r.l.
  • Langue : Anglais
  • Synthèse vocale : Activée
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Commentaires client les plus utiles sur (beta) 4.7 étoiles sur 5  6 commentaires
2 internautes sur 2 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Great! 27 mai 2014
Par Brian Bigelow - Publié sur
Achat vérifié
This book does a good job at explaining global warming and what causes it. If you're interested in the subject I recommend reading the book. It makes the underlying science very accessible.
1 internautes sur 1 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Credible and Clear 17 juillet 2014
Par Loyd E. Eskildson - Publié sur
Achat vérifié
'It is now more certain than ever that humans are changing Earth's climate. Human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels since the start of the Industrial Revolution, have increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations by about 40%, with more than half the increase occurring since 1970. Natural causes (variations in the Sun's output - varies slightly over an 11-year cycle, and in Earth's orbit around the Sun, volcanic eruptions, El Nino and La Nina) alone are inadequate to explain recent observed changes in climate. Decreases in the fraction of carbon isotopes C14 and C13 show that the rise in CO2 is largely from combustion of fossil fuels which have low C13 fractions and no C14. Measurements of air extracted from ice cores indicates that current CO@ concentrations are high than in at least 800,000 years.

Increases in the Sun's output would warm both the troposphere and the full vertical extent of the stratosphere. Measurements instead show tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling over the past 30 - 40 years.

The last few natural ice age cycles have recurred about every 100,000 years, and mainly caused by slow changes in Earth's orbit which alter the way the Sun's energy is distributed. These changes are not sufficient to cause observed magnitude of temperature changes observed, nor to act on the whole Earth. Current warming is more than 10X the speed at the end of an ice age, the fastest known natural sustained change on a global scale.

CO2 concentrations and temperatures for earlier geological times have been inferred from indirect methods. These suggest that CO2 last approached 400 ppm about 3 - 5 million years ago, when global average surface temperature is estimated to have been about 2 - 3.5 C higher than the pre-industrial period. At 50 million years ago, CO2 may have reached 1000 ppm, and global average temperature was probably about 10 C warmer than today.

The observed recent warming rate has varied from year to year, decade to decade, and place to place, as expected from our understanding of the climate system. These short-term variations are mostly due to natural causes. Example sources include large volcanic eruptions, ocean circulation and mixing cycles.

Since the very warm year 1998 that followed the strong 1997-98 El Nino, the increase in average surface temperature has slowed relative to the prior decade. Despite this the 2000s were warmer than the 1900s. Some heat comes out of the ocean into the atmosphere during warm El Nino events, and more heat penetrates to ocean depths in cold La Ninas. Such changes occur repeatedly over timescales of decades and longer.

La Nina events shift weather patterns so that some regions are made wetter, and wet summers are generally cooler. Stronger winds from polar regions can contribute to an occasional colder winter.

Arctic sea ice is decreasing, while Antarctic sea ice is not. The latter is attributed to changes in surface wind patterns reducing the amount of warm air from low latitudes in Antarctica and may be due to effects of the ozone hole.

Attributing extreme weather events to climate change is challenging because these events are rare and hard to reliably evaluate, and affected by patterns of natural climate variability. The biggest cause of droughts and floods is the shifting of climate patterns between El Nino and La Nina events. El Nino events favor drought in many areas, while La Nina events promote wetter conditions in many places.

Results from the best available climate models do not predict abrupt changes (tipping points) in this century. However, these possibilities are hard to predict and cannot be ruled out.

If CO2 emissions stopped completely, it would take many thousands of years for atmospheric CO2 to return to 'pre-industrial' levels due to its considerable burial in the deep ocean - surface temperatures would stay elevated for at least 1,000 years.
1 internautes sur 1 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Facts 10 mai 2014
Par A. Conrad - Publié sur
Achat vérifié
The book does an excellent of presenting just the facts. It would be hard to read this book and come away still believing GW is not real. Anyone discounting the book will never believe in Man Made GW.
2 internautes sur 3 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Thought provoking 16 mars 2014
Par James Brennan - Publié sur
Achat vérifié
Very well written. Should hopefully help to end the bow and silly debate as to whether humanity is having an effect on climate change and hasten the search for ways future generations may be able to cope with the consequences
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Must read: climate change overview 14 juin 2014
Par William C. Mead - Publié sur
Achat vérifié
This 2014 booklet by the National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society presents a brief overview of the status of the scientific understanding of climate change. The booklet is written by scientists for laymen. As such, it does not go into much detail, but rather focuses on the "large view" of the field, with a few selected pieces of evidence. There are two sections: a Q&A section that addresses some of the current questions in the public discussion of global warming and a narrative section that describes the main physical processes that are thought to affect the climate.

From my limited knowledge of the field, plus my training and experience as a researcher in physics, I find both the writing and the science to be cogent and convincing.

The Kindle adaptation of this booklet is very convenient and usable. BTW, the Kindle version is free.

I highly recommend this booklet to everyone who is interested in understanding the experts' view of the hot issue (pun intended) of climate change. Citizens of the USA and the world need to gain some appreciation of this body of scientific work that has profound policy implications.
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