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The Hockey Stick Illusion
 
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The Hockey Stick Illusion [Format Kindle]

Andrew Montford
4.7 étoiles sur 5  Voir tous les commentaires (3 commentaires client)

Prix conseillé : EUR 10,05 De quoi s'agit-il ?
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Descriptions du produit

Présentation de l'éditeur

Here is the definitive exposé of the distorted science behind the iconic global warming graph centrally responsible for the global panic about climate change.

From Steve McIntyre's earliest attempts to reproduce Michael Mann's Hockey Stick graph, to the explosive publication of his work and the launch of a congressional inquiry, The Hockey Stick Illusion is a remarkable tale of scientific misconduct and amateur sleuthing. It explains the complex science of this most controversial of temperature reconstructions in layperson's language and lays bare the remarkable extent to which climatologists have been willing to break their own rules in order to defend climate science's most famous finding.

The book also covers the recent leak of the email archives of the Climatic Research Unit which has led to the resignation of its Director, Professor Phil Jones, and exposed the degree to which climate scientists on both sides of the Atlantic have hidden and manipulated data to support their claims.

Détails sur le produit

  • Format : Format Kindle
  • Taille du fichier : 2979 KB
  • Nombre de pages de l'édition imprimée : 489 pages
  • Pagination - ISBN de l'édition imprimée de référence : 1906768358
  • Editeur : Stacey International (6 juin 2011)
  • Vendu par : Amazon Media EU S.à r.l.
  • Langue : Anglais
  • ASIN: B005A54KEM
  • Synthèse vocale : Activée
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  • Moyenne des commentaires client : 4.7 étoiles sur 5  Voir tous les commentaires (3 commentaires client)
  • Classement des meilleures ventes d'Amazon: n°190.932 dans la Boutique Kindle (Voir le Top 100 dans la Boutique Kindle)
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Commentaires client les plus utiles
1 internautes sur 1 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 un débat souvent occulté ou déformé. 23 novembre 2011
Format:Broché
Le débat sur le changement climatique est souvent biaisé ou falsifié. Le débat reste ouvert. Il est donc mensonger de faire comme s'il était tranché, ce que font certains journalistes et hommes politiques.
Le livre de Montford est une contribution à ce débat. Elle est honnête. Souhaitons qu'elle soit reçue honnêtement.
Elle est aussi un remarquable travail de divulgation scientifique, accessible à un large public.
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1 internautes sur 1 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 Une histoire détaillée de la crosse de hockey 6 avril 2011
Par GM
Format:Broché
Ce livre détaille l'histoire de cette corruption de la science avec son démantelement progressif par McIntyre et McKitrick de 2003 jusqu'à nos jours.
Tous les courriers échangés par tous les protagonistes pour une chute du GIEC de son piedestal.
Edifiant
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5.0 étoiles sur 5 Edifiant 14 mai 2014
Par RAS TOP 500 COMMENTATEURS
Format:Broché
Cet ouvrage est un des meilleurs livres de science que j'ai lu. Il montre par le détail les controverses autour de la célèbre courbe en forme de crosse de Hockey de Michael Mann, censée montrer que les dernières années du 20e siècle étaient les plus chaudes du millénaire. Celle qui est également entrée dans le 3e, puis le 4e rapport du GIEC. Ceci dit, comme montre l'auteur, ce n'était pas difficile, pour le 3e rapport c'est Mann qui était le principal auteur du chapitre en question et pour le 4e c'était un de ses associés les plus proches ...
Montford a fait une brillante démonstration de la corruption de la science climatologique par une multitude de procédés: falsification des données, utilisations de tests statistiques inappropriés, utilisation de mesures "proxy" de la température qui n'en sont pas, détournement du processus de peer-review dans les revues sympathisantes, pressions politiques, difficulté extrême ou impossibilité pour les collègues "non-croyants" d'avoir accès aux données originales (pourtant une procédure standard dans les revues d'autres domaines qui refusent même de faire expertiser les articles par des pairs si les données ne sont pas mis à disposition), complaisance de certaines revues scientifiques, etc.
Lire la suite ›
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Amazon.com: 4.2 étoiles sur 5  89 commentaires
268 internautes sur 350 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 hockey story 25 janvier 2010
Par M. PHELPS - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Broché
This is a superb review of the story of the hockeystick, the temperature reconstruction which was supposed to show that late 20th century temperatures were unprecedented for at least 1,000 years and which was highlighted in the third IPCC report in 2001. What Montford does in this book is take us through Steven McIntyre's attempt to reproduce the original result of Michael Mann and the controversy that followed. His account is very well written and it reads like a detective story. The technical details of the debate are clearly explained even though there is no heavy mathematics or statistics. He tells the story chronologically and gives a good feel of what people on both sides of the debate actually said at the time (and there are plenty of references as well as judicious quotes from all sides). I have been following this debate for the past five years or so. To my mind this gives as clear an account of the debate as we are likely to see. What is now clear is that the Mann conclusions, far from being based on coherent evidence across a geographical widespread range of proxies all showing similar patterns across the Northern hemisphere, were based on a tiny subset of proxies, bristlecone and foxtail pines, from California whose anomalous 20th century growth was almost certainly not caused by high temperature. The apparently broad evidence was an illusion created by an eccentric implementation of a standard statistical technique called principal components analysis. Mann's version of this (which appears to be his own creation) effectively mined his hundred plus proxies for any which had hockeystick shapes and then gave them huge weight in the analysis. What is worrying about all this is not so much the fact that a paper is wrong. It is the failure to admit this when it is perfectly clear that it is wrong. Montford documents the evasions of debate and the consistent misrepresentation of what McIntyre and McKitrick actually said, as well as multiple refusals of access to data and clear descriptions of what had actually been done. By the time of the 2006 Wegman report it was clear that the hockeystick was broken, but it seems too much had been invested in it for people in paleoclimate to admit outright that it was just wrong. Montford tells this story too and documents the shenanigans surrounding the fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. But rather than me attempting to condense the book into a paragraph I urge people to buy and read this excellent account. Note that it was largely written before the emails from CRU became public, though there is a final chapter dealing quickly with them. What is remarkable is how much of the story was already known to people who had been following the debate, but also the lengths people were prepared to go to try and stifle proper debate. For me the cover-up of the story has been a bigger influence in turning me sceptical than the mere fact of the hockey stick being wrong.
53 internautes sur 77 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 The Fraud In The Scientific Consensus 18 mars 2010
Par Amazon Customer - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Broché|Achat vérifié
Author A W Montford is one of those painstakingly patient people with a passion for the truth, and the intellectual and organizational tools to put together the story of the biggest scientific fraud since Piltdown Man.

Strong words? Yes! As Montford takes you through the emails, blog posts, and official records tracing the history of the infamous "Hockey Stick" graph, you start to see how we have been led astray by some of the world's foremost climate scientists as they use sloppy mathematics, felonious tree ring data, and a public relations effort rivaled only in political campaigns. They managed to convince the populace and political establishment that the warming of the earth in the 20th century was unprecedented, and the world was in great danger of catastrophic weather events and rising sea levels which would kill millions or cause massive destruction.

Montford does not present new data. His value is in telling the story of a world-wide scientific conspiracy in a style which keeps you turning page, after page, after page.
76 internautes sur 111 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Chilling case study of scientific corruption 6 février 2010
Par Humaine Optomist - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Broché
This excellent book operates on two levels. First, it details the tangled web of deception that made "the hockey stick illusion" the iconic image of the monstrous "Anthropogenic Global Warming" fraud.
Montford makes generally understandable the arcane issues of statistical manipulation that lie at the heart of the false "science." He does so in a narrative that is clear, riveting and horrifying. As a result of the duplicity of the Hockey Team and the IPCC, billions have been spent and we have no idea whether or how human beings may affect climate change. We are at square one.
Second, Montford uses this saga as a case study for the need to require transparency and access to all data and code that underpin scientific claims, especially the research that is used to support government policies.
Clearly so many people were fooled for so long by this particular statistical legerdemain because, without access to the underlying data and code, the effort required to replicate and find the flaws in Mann's Hockey Stick was almost impossible.
Thank Heaven for a retired mathematician - Steve McIntyre - who undertook the thousands of hours (and dollars) required to find and prove the flaws in this duplicitous artifact of NOT Science.
What is needed is a very intense investigation of how the public interest can be protected from such frauds - whether in climate science, financial derivatives, medical policies, etc. To err is human - but to really mess up, it takes a computer! Bravo to A.W. Montford who made the whole story understandable to a mathematically impaired reader like me.
93 internautes sur 136 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Colombo's Verdict: GW Perpetrated by a Hockey Stick in the Library 24 février 2010
Par George Gilder - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Broché|Achat vérifié
The plot of the Hockey Stick Illusion will be familiar to any follower of the Colombo shows on television. In each case, we see the humble investigator initially ignored, brushed aside, stonewalled, disdained, doubletalked, waffled, red herringed, and evaded by lofty and complacent Establishment figures, citing their own authority, crowded schedules, sophisticated reasoning, advanced degrees, abstruse mathematics, and exalted ideals.

In this case, the Columbo figure is Steve McIntyre, a Canadian mining consultant. A.W. Montford's book tells the gripping and suspenseful details of McIntyre's pursuit of the self-denominated "hockey team" led by Michael Mann, who wrote the key chapters on his own work for the IPCC, and Phil Jones, who maintains the temperature record used by the IPCC to document the "Hockey Stick": showing unprecedented and anomalous anthropogenic global warming in the Twentieth Century while denying that any comparable or greater warming occurred in the Medieval period.

McIntyre relentlessly replicates and decodes the increasingly desperate devices used by the climatocrats to defend their findings. But parallel to this fascinating story is the amazing tale of the ascent of Mann. From an obscure newly minted PhD in 1998 at the U Mass department of geosciences, he became the Lead Author of the crucial Observed Climate Variability chapter in the IPCC report, contributor to several other chapters, 'Scientific Advisor' to the White House on climate change, pundit on CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, BBC, NPR, PBS, and scores of Establishment newspapers and magazines. The ascent culminates in the Nobel Peace Prize for the team and a role as the very incarnation of a Consensus of science requiring the creation of a global apparatus to stigmatize as pollution, regulate and tax the very CO2 that sustains all of plant and animal life.

Explaining the science in detail, Montford's narrative climaxes with the dissolution of the hockey stick, the discomfiture of the Hockey Team, the eruption of Climategate, and the quiet and total victory of the humble mining engineer. The reader should know that the supposed email "scandal" is in fact rather trivial and defensible. Few people are at their best in emails. But the hockey stick's science is shoddy beyond easy belief. The hockey stick chart mostly reflects a defective algorithm that extends and inflates a few deceptive signals from as few as 20 cherry-picked trees in Colorado and Russia into a tendentiously rising graph that is replicated repeatedly through reshuffles of the same or similar defective and factitious data. These people apparently had no plausible case and were pressed by their political sponsors to contrive a series of Potemkin charts.

Make no mistake. This argument is conclusive: if temperatures were warmer in the pre-industrial Medieval period, the entire global warming case for CO2 suppression collapses. Don't miss this definitive book.

GG
78 internautes sur 114 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Vitally Important And Necessary 23 février 2010
Par Crosslands - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Broché
Mr. Montford has written an extremely important and interesting book. The topic is scientific fraud, one of the biggest such frauds in the history of humanity. The fraud is the hockey stick assertion that the earth in the late twentieth century experienced unprecedented global warming and higher temperatures, at least for the past two thousand years. If this fraud had remained not refuted humanity would been subject to restrictions that would greatly reduce living standards and freedom. There is a lot a stake with the hockey stick hoax.

Mr. Montford describes in great detail how two courageous, persistent, and heroic Canadian researchers managed to refute the hockey stick hoax. Mr. Montford writes about how these Canadians managed to obtain the data and publish their work. Mr. Montford also goes into great detail about the misuse of data and poor methodology that characterized the hockey stick assertion. He provides a lot of information about the statistical principle components method and how this method was misused to derive the hockey stick shape for the world temperatures over the last thousand years. He also discusses the tree ring data and how such data that was represented to be a proxy for world temperature often was not. The book is encyclopedic in its discussion of the hockey stick hoax. Yet the book is very well written and understandable.

Mr. Montford also points out the hockey stick instigators and the climate journals they wrote for very often refused to provide independent researchers with the data and/or methodology for the articles in support of the hockey stick. Independent researchers had to put much time and effort into their efforts to replicate or at least partially replicate the statistical results of the hockey stick purveyors. Mr. Montford explains that this is not science. Real science demands that the data and other material pertaining to the experimental results be available for independent verification. This data and methodology was not easily or graciously provided by the hockey stick team, if the items were provided at all.

The book also goes into some detail about Al Gore's use of the hockey stick. Despite some of Al Gore's claims he used in his works the hockey stick of pseudo scientist Michael Mann.

The book demonstrates the scientific dogmatism and fraud is not just a past problem of Galileo's era. The potential for scientific fraud can exist any time establishment dogma and special interests exist. Only eternal vigilance can expose and halt this fraud.

The book is incredibly important. The story of the hockey stick hoax must be well known for the welfare of humanity. And this book is the only book so far that is devoted to tell this story. The book is an absolute must for everyone. The book is absolutely vital.
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