The Hockey Stick Illusion Here is the definitive expose of the distorted science behind the iconic global warming graph centrally responsible for the global panic about climate change. Full description
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Le débat sur le changement climatique est souvent biaisé ou falsifié. Le débat reste ouvert. Il est donc mensonger de faire comme s'il était tranché, ce que font certains journalistes et hommes politiques. Le livre de Montford est une contribution à ce débat. Elle est honnête. Souhaitons qu'elle soit reçue honnêtement. Elle est aussi un remarquable travail de divulgation scientifique, accessible à un large public.
Ce livre détaille l'histoire de cette corruption de la science avec son démantelement progressif par McIntyre et McKitrick de 2003 jusqu'à nos jours. Tous les courriers échangés par tous les protagonistes pour une chute du GIEC de son piedestal. Edifiant
Cet ouvrage est un des meilleurs livres de science que j'ai lu. Il montre par le détail les controverses autour de la célèbre courbe en forme de crosse de Hockey de Michael Mann, censée montrer que les dernières années du 20e siècle étaient les plus chaudes du millénaire. Celle qui est également entrée dans le 3e, puis le 4e rapport du GIEC. Ceci dit, comme montre l'auteur, ce n'était pas difficile, pour le 3e rapport c'est Mann qui était le principal auteur du chapitre en question et pour le 4e c'était un de ses associés les plus proches ... Montford a fait une brillante démonstration de la corruption de la science climatologique par une multitude de procédés: falsification des données, utilisations de tests statistiques inappropriés, utilisation de mesures "proxy" de la température qui n'en sont pas, détournement du processus de peer-review dans les revues sympathisantes, pressions politiques, difficulté extrême ou impossibilité pour les collègues "non-croyants" d'avoir accès aux données originales (pourtant une procédure standard dans les revues d'autres domaines qui refusent même de faire expertiser les articles par des pairs si les données ne sont pas mis à disposition), complaisance de certaines revues scientifiques, etc.Lire la suite ›
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272 internautes sur 355 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile
hockey story25 janvier 2010
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This is a superb review of the story of the hockeystick, the temperature reconstruction which was supposed to show that late 20th century temperatures were unprecedented for at least 1,000 years and which was highlighted in the third IPCC report in 2001. What Montford does in this book is take us through Steven McIntyre's attempt to reproduce the original result of Michael Mann and the controversy that followed. His account is very well written and it reads like a detective story. The technical details of the debate are clearly explained even though there is no heavy mathematics or statistics. He tells the story chronologically and gives a good feel of what people on both sides of the debate actually said at the time (and there are plenty of references as well as judicious quotes from all sides). I have been following this debate for the past five years or so. To my mind this gives as clear an account of the debate as we are likely to see. What is now clear is that the Mann conclusions, far from being based on coherent evidence across a geographical widespread range of proxies all showing similar patterns across the Northern hemisphere, were based on a tiny subset of proxies, bristlecone and foxtail pines, from California whose anomalous 20th century growth was almost certainly not caused by high temperature. The apparently broad evidence was an illusion created by an eccentric implementation of a standard statistical technique called principal components analysis. Mann's version of this (which appears to be his own creation) effectively mined his hundred plus proxies for any which had hockeystick shapes and then gave them huge weight in the analysis. What is worrying about all this is not so much the fact that a paper is wrong. It is the failure to admit this when it is perfectly clear that it is wrong. Montford documents the evasions of debate and the consistent misrepresentation of what McIntyre and McKitrick actually said, as well as multiple refusals of access to data and clear descriptions of what had actually been done. By the time of the 2006 Wegman report it was clear that the hockeystick was broken, but it seems too much had been invested in it for people in paleoclimate to admit outright that it was just wrong. Montford tells this story too and documents the shenanigans surrounding the fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. But rather than me attempting to condense the book into a paragraph I urge people to buy and read this excellent account. Note that it was largely written before the emails from CRU became public, though there is a final chapter dealing quickly with them. What is remarkable is how much of the story was already known to people who had been following the debate, but also the lengths people were prepared to go to try and stifle proper debate. For me the cover-up of the story has been a bigger influence in turning me sceptical than the mere fact of the hockey stick being wrong.
95 internautes sur 139 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile
Colombo's Verdict: GW Perpetrated by a Hockey Stick in the Library24 février 2010
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The plot of the Hockey Stick Illusion will be familiar to any follower of the Colombo shows on television. In each case, we see the humble investigator initially ignored, brushed aside, stonewalled, disdained, doubletalked, waffled, red herringed, and evaded by lofty and complacent Establishment figures, citing their own authority, crowded schedules, sophisticated reasoning, advanced degrees, abstruse mathematics, and exalted ideals.
In this case, the Columbo figure is Steve McIntyre, a Canadian mining consultant. A.W. Montford's book tells the gripping and suspenseful details of McIntyre's pursuit of the self-denominated "hockey team" led by Michael Mann, who wrote the key chapters on his own work for the IPCC, and Phil Jones, who maintains the temperature record used by the IPCC to document the "Hockey Stick": showing unprecedented and anomalous anthropogenic global warming in the Twentieth Century while denying that any comparable or greater warming occurred in the Medieval period.
McIntyre relentlessly replicates and decodes the increasingly desperate devices used by the climatocrats to defend their findings. But parallel to this fascinating story is the amazing tale of the ascent of Mann. From an obscure newly minted PhD in 1998 at the U Mass department of geosciences, he became the Lead Author of the crucial Observed Climate Variability chapter in the IPCC report, contributor to several other chapters, 'Scientific Advisor' to the White House on climate change, pundit on CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, BBC, NPR, PBS, and scores of Establishment newspapers and magazines. The ascent culminates in the Nobel Peace Prize for the team and a role as the very incarnation of a Consensus of science requiring the creation of a global apparatus to stigmatize as pollution, regulate and tax the very CO2 that sustains all of plant and animal life.
Explaining the science in detail, Montford's narrative climaxes with the dissolution of the hockey stick, the discomfiture of the Hockey Team, the eruption of Climategate, and the quiet and total victory of the humble mining engineer. The reader should know that the supposed email "scandal" is in fact rather trivial and defensible. Few people are at their best in emails. But the hockey stick's science is shoddy beyond easy belief. The hockey stick chart mostly reflects a defective algorithm that extends and inflates a few deceptive signals from as few as 20 cherry-picked trees in Colorado and Russia into a tendentiously rising graph that is replicated repeatedly through reshuffles of the same or similar defective and factitious data. These people apparently had no plausible case and were pressed by their political sponsors to contrive a series of Potemkin charts.
Make no mistake. This argument is conclusive: if temperatures were warmer in the pre-industrial Medieval period, the entire global warming case for CO2 suppression collapses. Don't miss this definitive book.
125 internautes sur 184 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile
500 Wonderful Pages of "Caspar" from the Bishop!7 février 2010
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The "Bishop Hill" blog was well-respected, but not particularly remarkable until the posting of "Caspar and the Jesus paper" in August 2008. With this posting, we learned that the esteemed Bishop (now also revealed as Andrew Montford), the author of this new book, had a talent for putting scattered bits and pieces of information into a highly coherent presentation. It was remarkable enough that he was able to take myriad blog postings and figure out what they all added up to, and further remarkable that he was able to map this understanding into writing. Would it be possible to achieve this Casper-style in a more encompassing work? Too much to ask for? Well, HERE it is!
The narrative is highly readable, not mathematical, except that Montford does specifically give the official names of things. Instead of saying something like "they blew the math" he tells you how data were improperly normalized, or the use of SVD, and the consequences. In addition to describing the ill-advised technical issues, he describes appearance of the poor science (seeing what you want to see), other more common human foibles such as possible (or likely) "cherry-picking", and the suppression of contradicting evidence, all of which are not supposed to be in science.
While it would not be difficult, based on his blog perhaps, to discern the Bishop's views on AGW and its politics, the current book is basically impartial, except as it relates to the poor science and the overriding political motives of the AGW advocates. It deals rationally and fair-mindedly with the (illusion of the) Hockey stick graph. People commenting on the book are advised to direct criticisms, if any, on the basis of what he writes rather than what "camp" they perceive the author to belong to. This does involve actually reading the book however. Expect the usual reflex one star submissions from those who review just the title - and then go on to a few stock comment about the decline in the penguin population at the North Pole.
So, by the way, how DO you get to read the book. As of this writing, it does not appear to be widely available on Amazon in the US, and let's hope that will be directly available soon. I got mine from Amazon.UK, which was surprisingly easy - pretty much like this Amazon site. Shipping was about as much as the book, but I think it was only $26 with the shipping, and it arrived in 8 days by "Royal Mail". And it's a beefy book of almost 500 page-turning pages.
39 internautes sur 57 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile
A book well worth reading20 août 2010
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Yes, there are hundreds of other books on this subject, but read The Hockey Stick Illusion anyway. It is an exciting story of fraud in climate science. The hero of the book is Steve McIntyre, a mining consultant who's an expert in statistics. With the help of a few other climate skeptics, he takes on the climate science establishment. The villain in The Hockey Stick Illusion is Michael Mann, a climatologist who he thinks is manipulating date to prove the 20th century was uniquely warm. Whatever your opinion is on global warming (I firmly believe it's real), you should be upset about climate scientists manipulating data in the service of a political agenda. Montford also has a interesting take on peer review, which he argues is not as useful or important as most people think.
76 internautes sur 112 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile
Chilling case study of scientific corruption6 février 2010
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This excellent book operates on two levels. First, it details the tangled web of deception that made "the hockey stick illusion" the iconic image of the monstrous "Anthropogenic Global Warming" fraud. Montford makes generally understandable the arcane issues of statistical manipulation that lie at the heart of the false "science." He does so in a narrative that is clear, riveting and horrifying. As a result of the duplicity of the Hockey Team and the IPCC, billions have been spent and we have no idea whether or how human beings may affect climate change. We are at square one. Second, Montford uses this saga as a case study for the need to require transparency and access to all data and code that underpin scientific claims, especially the research that is used to support government policies. Clearly so many people were fooled for so long by this particular statistical legerdemain because, without access to the underlying data and code, the effort required to replicate and find the flaws in Mann's Hockey Stick was almost impossible. Thank Heaven for a retired mathematician - Steve McIntyre - who undertook the thousands of hours (and dollars) required to find and prove the flaws in this duplicitous artifact of NOT Science. What is needed is a very intense investigation of how the public interest can be protected from such frauds - whether in climate science, financial derivatives, medical policies, etc. To err is human - but to really mess up, it takes a computer! Bravo to A.W. Montford who made the whole story understandable to a mathematically impaired reader like me.