Irrational Exuberance: Amazon.fr: Robert J. Shiller: Livres anglais et �trangers

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Sequels often disappoint when compared to their predecessors, but author Robert Shiller has proved the exception to the rule with his second edition of Irrational Exuberance. When the original book released in 2000, Shiller's prescient analysis of bubble-like market behavior provided perspective on the painful meltdown of stock-price valuations that subsequently occurred. Five years later, the Yale professor's bearish predictions about real-estate valuations are enough to give any savvy investor or homebuyer pause.

Shiller is one of several well-known economists and pundits who've begun a running dialogue in the last few years around the drawbacks of unchecked free markets. Few writers, though, dissect the phenomenon of bubble behavior as clearly and thoroughly as Shiller does. As with the first edition of his book, Shiller begins this one with reams of quantitative data around the late 1990s stock-market runup. This new edition adds data on real-estate price trends in the early 2000s, and points out the striking parallels between the earlier stock-market boom and bust, and current trends with housing prices in the United States. Shiller actually believes the two phenomena are related; as investors lost confidence in the stock market and moved their money into real estate, one asset class fell while the other rose. According to Shiller's analysis, the pattern is destined to repeat itself.

Aside from the initial data, the real strength of Irrational Exuberance is the straightforward, almost clinical way in which it explains why things happen as they do. The book walks readers through structural reasons for market bubbles, then ventures into "softer" analyses which professional economists less confident than Shiller would be scared to touch. It examines cultural factors behind market bubbles, such as hype-mongering news media, and psychological factors, such as herd behavior.

Another improvement in this latest edition of Shiller's book is his inclusion of more personal commentary, and he mentions the influence that his wife, herself a clinical psychologist, has had on his intellectual development and his view of psychological impacts on economic behavior. Other personal insights from Shiller center on experiences he had while touring and lecturing around the first book, and some of the most interesting passages are those in which he describes common questions or feedback from his audience, and what he thought in reaction--but didn't voice while on his tour.

In the end, Shiller closes his book with an intriguing set of policy proposals. He argues for a revamping of the U.S. social security system, a new system of house-price insurance for homeowners, and risk reduction through portfolio diversification. Fans of the brainy academic will note with approval that Shiller practices what he preaches: he has begun trying to implement some of his ideas in the real world through two private consulting firms he has founded, Macro Securities Research and Macro Financial. The hope is if Shiller's as correct with this second book as he was with his first, readers will all learn something from these new companies. --Peter Han

From Library Journal

Taking his book's title and thesis from Alan Greenspan's 1996 description of investors, Shiller (economics, Yale Univ.) studies the current booming U.S. stock market in historical terms. His research into past U.S. and international markets indicates that during every speculative bubble there was always widespread consensus that high valuations were justified by each market's special circumstances. Every large market correction seemed to result from popular consensus rather than specific events or news. Shiller says that past bull and bear markets, though often based initially on sound fundamental reasoning, fed upon themselves to go beyond what the facts justified. He challenges the efficient market theory, demonstrating that markets cannot be explained historically by the movement of company earnings or dividends. He concludes that the current U.S. stock market is a speculative bubble awaiting correction. While the book certainly belongs in all academic business collections, public libraries should also purchase it as a counterweight to the plethora of get-rich-quick investment guides.
-Lawrence R. Maxted, Gannon Univ., Erie, PA
Copyright 2000 Reed Business Information, Inc. --Ce texte fait r�f�rence � l�dition Reli� .

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Informations de grande valeur 15 janvier 2005

Par Antoine

Format:Broch�

Parmi tous les ouvrages et articles censés informer sur les marchés financiers, voici un livre exceptionnel, qui expose très clairement une grande quantité de données rigoureuses sur l'évolution historique des marchés. La publication de cet ouvrage en 2000, à contre-courant de la propagande massive, à cette époque, en faveur de la "nouvelle économie" et de fabuleux enrichissements sans risque en Bourse, montre l'indépendance et le sérieux de l'auteur.

En m�me temps, rien à voir avec les discours rebattus des critiques du marché par les nostalgiques d'une économie socialiste. Un ouvrage très instructif, félicitations!

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Les raisons de la bulle spéculative 18 ao�t 2004

Par Nicolas

Ce livre revisite la bulle spéculative des marchés boursiers dans les années 90 et en décortique les raisons. Il met en garde contre les valeurs stratosphériques qu'ils ont atteint et force est de constater l'excellent timing de sa sortie (1ère publication en 2000).
L'auteur explique que ce n'est pas un évènement en particulier mais bien une confluence de facteurs qui ont permis cette bulle.
Très utile afin de répérer et comprendre les méchanismes de la psychologie de masse qui, par définition, ne sont pas connus de la majeur partie des investisseurs.

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Cassandre 29 juin 2010

Par Christophe FAURIE TESTEURS

Format:Reli�

Un travail sur les bulles spéculatives paru bien avant l'éclatement de la bulle Internet, et qui a un instant influencé Alan Greenspan, le patron de la Fed, avant qu'il ne retombe dans la folie collective.
Il fait la liste de toutes les raisons connues pour lesquelles les acteurs de l''économie peuvent avoir un comportement irrationnel (ce faisant mettant à mal le dogme dominant de l''économie moderne, qui repose sur leur rationalité). Un peu pénible, mais lisible par le non expert, et utile.