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One Up On Wall Street [Anglais] [Broché]

Peter Lynch , John Rothchild
5.0 étoiles sur 5  Voir tous les commentaires (2 commentaires client)
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Description de l'ouvrage

21 août 2000
Peter Lynch believes that average investors have advantages over Wall Street experts. Since the best opportunities can be found at the local mall or in their own places of employment, beginners have the chance to learn about potentially successful companies long before before professional analysts discover them. This headstart on the experts is what produces 'tenbaggers', the stocks that appreciate tenfold or more and turn an average stock portfolio into a star performer.
In this fully updated edition of his classic bestseller, Lynch explains how to research stocks and offers easy-to-follow directions for sorting out the long shots from the no shots. He also provides valuable advice on how to learn as much as possible from a company's story, and why every investor must ignore the ups and downs of the stock market and focus only on the fundamentals of the company in which they are investing.

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One Up On Wall Street + The Intelligent Investor Rev Ed. + Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings
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Descriptions du produit

Extrait

Introduction to the Millennium Edition

This book was written to offer encouragement and basic information to the individual investor. Who knew it would go through thirty printings and sell more than one million copies? As this latest edition appears eleven years beyond the first, I'm convinced that the same principles that helped me perform well at the Fidelity Magellan Fund still apply to investing in stocks today.

It's been a remarkable stretch since One Up on Wall Street hit the bookstores in 1989. I left Magellan in May, 1990, and pundits said it was a brilliant move. They congratulated me for getting out at the right time -- just before the collapse of the great bull market. For the moment, the pessimists looked smart. The country's major banks flirted with insolvency, and a few went belly up. By early fall, war was brewing in Iraq. Stocks suffered one of their worst declines in recent memory. But then the war was won, the banking system survived, and stocks rebounded.

Some rebound! The Dow is up more than fourfold since October, 1990, from the 2,400 level to 11,000 and beyond -- the best decade for stocks in the twentieth century. Nearly 50 percent of U.S. households own stocks or mutual funds, up from 32 percent in 1989. The market at large has created $25 trillion in new wealth, which is on display in every city and town. If this keeps up, somebody will write a book called The Billionaire Next Door.

More than $4 trillion of that new wealth is invested in mutual funds, up from $275 billion in 1989. The fund bonanza is okay by me, since I managed a fund. But it also must mean a lot of amateur stockpickers did poorly with their picks. If they'd done better on their own in this mother of all bull markets, they wouldn't have migrated to funds to the extent they have. Perhaps the information contained in this book will set some errant stockpickers on a more profitable path.

Since stepping down at Magellan, I've become an individual investor myself. On the charitable front, I raise scholarship money to send inner-city kids of all faiths to Boston Catholic schools. Otherwise, I work part-time at Fidelity as a fund trustee and as an adviser/trainer for young research analysts. Lately my leisure time is up at least thirtyfold, as I spend more time with my family at home and abroad.

Enough about me. Let's get back to my favorite subject: stocks. From the start of this bull market in August 1982, we've seen the greatest advance in stock prices in U.S. history, with the Dow up fifteenfold. In Lynch lingo that's a "fifteenbagger." I'm accustomed to finding fifteenbaggers in a variety of successful companies, but a fifteenbagger in the market at large is a stunning reward. Consider this: From the top in 1929 through 1982, the Dow produced only a fourbagger: up from 248 to 1,046 in a half century! Lately stock prices have risen faster as they've moved higher. It took the Dow 8 1/3 years to double from 2,500 to 5,000, and only 3 1/2 years to double from 5,000 to 10,000. From 1995-99 we saw an unprecedented five straight years where stocks returned 20 percent plus. Never before has the market recorded more than two back-to-back 20 percent gains.

Wall Street's greatest bull market has rewarded the believers and confounded the skeptics to a degree neither side could have imagined in the doldrums of the early 1970s, when I first took the helm at Magellan. At that low point, demoralized investors had to remind themselves that bear markets don't last forever, and those with patience held on to their stocks and mutual funds for the fifteen years it took the Dow and other averages to regain the prices reached in the mid-1960s. Today it's worth reminding ourselves that bull markets don't last forever and that patience is required in both directions.

On page 280 of this book I say the breakup of ATT in 1984 may have been the most significant stock market development of that era. Today it's the Internet, and so far the Internet has passed me by. All along I've been technophobic. My experience shows you don't have to be trendy to succeed as an investor. In fact, most great investors I know (Warren Buffett, for starters) are technophobes. They don't own what they don't understand, and neither do I. I understand Dunkin' Donuts and Chrysler, which is why both inhabited my portfolio, I understand banks, savings-and-loans, and their close relative, Fannie Mae. I don't visit the Web. I've never surfed on it or chatted across it. Without expert help (from my wife or my children, for instance) I couldn't find the Web.

Over the Thanksgiving holidays in 1997, I shared eggnog with a Web-tolerant friend in New York. I mentioned that my wife, Carolyn, liked the mystery novelist Dorothy Sayers. The friend sat down at a nearby computer and in a couple of clicks pulled up the entire list of Sayers titles, plus customer reviews and the one-to five-star ratings (on the literary Web sites, authors are rated like fund managers). I bought four Sayers novels for Carolyn, picked the gift wrapping, typed in our home address, and crossed one Christmas gift off my list. This was my introduction to Amazon.com.

Later on you'll read how I discovered some of my best stocks through eating or shopping, sometimes long before other professional stock hounds came across them. Since Amazon existed in cyberspace, and not in suburban mall space, I ignored it. Amazon wasn't beyond my comprehension -- the business was as understandable as a dry cleaner's. Also, in 1997 it was reasonably priced relative to its prospects, and it was well-financed. But I wasn't flexible enough to see opportunity in this new guise. Had I bothered to do the research, I would have seen the huge market for this sort of shopping and Amazon's ability to capture it. Alas, I didn't. Meanwhile, Amazon was up tenfold (a "tenbagger" in Lynch parlance) in 1998 alone.

Amazon is one of at least five hundred "dot.com" stocks that have performed miraculous levitations. In high-tech and dot.com circles, it's not unusual for a newly launched public offering to rise tenfold in less time than it takes Stephen King to pen another thriller. These investments don't require much patience. Before the Internet came along, companies had to grow their way into the billion-dollar ranks. Now they can reach billion-dollar valuations before they've turned a profit or, in some cases, before they've collected any revenues. Mr. Market (a fictional proxy for stocks in general) doesn't wait for a newborn Web site to prove itself in real life the way, say, Wal-Mart or Home Depot proved themselves in the last generation.

With today's hot Internet stocks, fundamentals are old hat. (The term old hat is old hat in itself, proving that I'm old hat for bringing it up.) The mere appearance of a dot and a com, and the exciting concept behind it, is enough to convince today's optimists to pay for a decade's worth of growth and prosperity in advance. Subsequent buyers pay escalating prices based on the futuristic "fundamentals," which improve with each uptick.

Judging by the Maserati sales in Silicon Valley, dot.coms are highly rewarding to entrepreneurs who take them public and early buyers who make timely exits. But I'd like to pass along a word of caution to people who buy shares after they've levitated. Does it make sense to invest in a dot.com at prices that already reflect years of rapid earnings growth that may or may not occur? By the way I pose this, you've already figured out my answer is "no." With many of these new issues, the stock price doubles, triples, or even quadruples on the first day of trading. Unless your broker can stake your claim to a meaningful allotment of shares at the initial offering price -- an unlikely prospect since Internet offerings are more coveted, even, than Super Bowl tickets -- you'll miss a big percent of the gain. Perhaps you'll miss the entire gain, since some dot.coms hit high prices on the first few trading sessions that they never reach again.

If you feel left out of the dot.com jubilee, remind yourself that very few dot.com investors benefit from the full ride. It's misleading to measure the progress of these stocks from the offering price that most buyers can't get. Those who are allotted shares are lucky to receive more than a handful.

In spite of the instant gratification that surrounds me, I've continued to invest the old-fashioned way. I own stocks where results depend on ancient fundamentals: a successful company enters new markets, its earnings rise, and the share price follows along. Or a flawed company turns itself around. The typical big winner in the Lynch portfolio (I continue to pick my share of losers, too!) generally takes three to ten years or more to play out.

Owing to the lack of earnings in dot.com land, most dot.coms can't be rated using the standard price/earnings yardstick. In other words, there's no "e" in the all-important "p/e" ratio. Without a "p/e" ratio to track, investors focus on the one bit of data that shows up everywhere: the stock price! To my mind, the stock price is the least useful information you can track, and it's the most widely tracked. When One Up was written in 1989, a lone ticker tape ran across the bottom of the Financial News Network. Today you can find a ticker tape on a variety of channels, while others display little boxes that showcase the Dow, the S&P 500, and so forth. Channel surfers can't avoid knowing where the market closed. On the popular Internet portals, you can click on your customized portfolio and get the latest gyrations for every holding. Or you can get stock prices on 800 lines, pagers, and voice mail.

To me, this barrage of price tags sends the wrong message. If my favorite Internet company sells for $30 a share, and yours sells for $10, then people who focus on price would say that mine is the superior company. This is a dangerous delusion. What Mr. Market pays for a stock today or next week doesn't tell you which company has the best chance to succeed two to three years down the information superhighwa...

Revue de presse

Anise C. Wallace The New York Times Mr. Lynch's investment record puts him in a league by himself.

Détails sur le produit

  • Broché: 320 pages
  • Editeur : S & S International; Édition : 2nd Revised edition (21 août 2000)
  • Langue : Anglais
  • ISBN-10: 0743200403
  • ISBN-13: 978-0743200400
  • Dimensions du produit: 21,3 x 14,2 x 2 cm
  • Moyenne des commentaires client : 5.0 étoiles sur 5  Voir tous les commentaires (2 commentaires client)
  • Classement des meilleures ventes d'Amazon: 4.802 en Livres anglais et étrangers (Voir les 100 premiers en Livres anglais et étrangers)
  • Table des matières complète
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Par Lawrence
Format:Format Kindle|Achat vérifié
Ce livre est un concentré de bon sens et d'expérience sur le comportement des investisseurs institutionnels, les atouts des actionnaires individuels, les erreurs souvent commises par ces mêmes actionnaires individuels. Beaucoup de conseils pour bien choisir ses valeurs et son timing. Excellent ouvrage que vous soyez investisseur débutant ou expérimenté.
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Par Anonyme
Format:Broché|Achat vérifié
Malgrè qu'il ne propose pas de stratégie claire, le livre est plein d'idée pour trouver des entreprises prometteuses. J'aime bien l'idée d'adapter sa stratégie selon l'entreprise en question (growth companies, stalwarts...)
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Commentaires client les plus utiles sur Amazon.com (beta)
Amazon.com: 4.5 étoiles sur 5  334 commentaires
291 internautes sur 308 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Be smart and BUY this book! 2 février 2001
Par Lance Mead - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Broché
This is the first book I ever read on investing. My cousin, Paul, who was a broker at Merrill Lynch, recommended it to me. I followed Paul into the financial services industry, toiling 12 long years peddling stocks, bonds, mutual funds and insurance products. During my tenure as a Wall Street professional (I use that term very loosely), I must have read 200 different books on investing. Oddly enough, I have discarded many of those poorly written investor guides and still refer back to this classic book penned by Peter Lynch, mutual fund demigod, investment guru, stock-picking legend!
At the heart of Lynch's case is that each individual has enough inherent knowledge and experience to be a successful investor. He uses numerous analogies to show investors:
1. The power of common knowledge (take advantage of what you already know) 2. You don't need to be a Wall Street analyst to uncover great investment opportunities 3. You are not disadvantaged vs. large, institutional investors You don't have to accurately predict the stock market to make money in stocks 4. To keep an open mind to new ideas
From my years on Wall Street, I found many of his theories and ideas to be completely accurate. Many other books I have read focus on the inherent evils of the possessed financial consultant community. Yes, the industry has its problems. However, $8 stock trades are not the only ingredients in profitable investing. In fact, I don't recall him emphasizing the need for discount trades, a fact over-emphasized in almost every other book I have read (remember, I am no longer in the industry...I don't need to strike a case for broker commissions). Instead, he shows you what information to focus on and how to apply it.
Do yourself a favor: Buy this book. Read it twice. It is not outdated...it is timeless. Yea, I know, you already know it all. My advice is to lose the ego and take a refresher course on common sense investing. When you finish, put it on your bookshelf. Do not give it to your kids or neighbors; buy them their own copies. This is a great book!
94 internautes sur 100 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 1 of 3 books you have to have 3 avril 2006
Par Mat R. Diehl - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Broché|Achat vérifié
There are 3 books any person who is new to investing in the stock market MUST have. This book, Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor and Pat Dorsey's The 5 rules for successful stock investing. The insights these 3 books will give you are priceless and a MUST for anyone wanting to make money in the market. I am very happy to own all 3 and intend on passing them along to my son so he can learn how to best make his money work for him. Lynch goes through how to identify companies that may be of interest, then how to further analyze the prospects of making money by purchasing that company's stock, and then how to continue monitoring whether the stock is likely to head upward. Lynch places companies into 1 of 6 categories and gives you strategies for buying and selling companies that fall into each of the categories. As a fund manager who has proven his strategies are successful, his insight definitely carries some credibility.
35 internautes sur 37 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 The *MOST* SENSIBLE and FUN investment book you'll ever read 22 janvier 2000
Par Dave Lim - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Broché
Forget about those "Here-are-my-Wall-Street-secrets- that-will-make-you-a-millionaire" books. Peter Lynch takes all the "non" out of the "nonsense" about investing in stocks. For whoever you are, you're an expert in your field and you can beat Wall Street fund managers by following two simple Peter Lynch rules: "Invest in what you understand" and "Invest in companies you like". Not only will this be MOST SENSIBLE and USEFUL investment book you'll ever own, it'll also be the MOST FUN investment book you'll ever read. BUY THIS BOOK!
34 internautes sur 37 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Stop listening to professionals! 21 janvier 2005
Par Giancarlo Nicoli - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Broché
Note: I assume you already know who Mr. Lynch is (a former fund manager), and what Mr. Lynch did (he consistently beat the market - "he has a proven track record" - for almost twenty years).

The book has a witty, easygoing style; it's entertaining and informative, and you'll pretty soon find the urge to read it all as soon as possible. Beware, it's not an easy book! To read this book is not a substitute for hard work. There are no magic formulae to apply. There are no shortcuts to riches, you have to do your homeworks anyway!

"One Up" is divided in three sections. The first deals with how to assess yourself as a stockpicker; the second deals with how to find the most promising opportunities, what to look for in a company and what to avoid, and what to make of the various numbers (p/e ratio, book value, cash flow, etc - explanations are clear, this is a book for everyone) that are often mentioned in technical evaluations of stocks. The third part basically is about everything else, including when to buy and when to sell.

Mr. Lynch opens the book with his rule number one, devoted to those believing that professionals will do better than individuals because professionals know more and have more skills (I'll extensively quote him): "Stop listening to professionals! Twenty years in this business convinces me that any normal person (...) can pick stocks just as well, if not better, than the average Wall Street expert". No wonder here and there we find 1-star, angry reviews of this book!

Here are, in my opinion, the basics of this book:

The Street Lag
"Under the current system, a stock isn't truly attractive until a number of large institutions have recognized its suitability and an equal number of respected Wall Street analysts (the researchers who track the various industries and companies) have put it o the recommended list. With so many people waiting for others to make the first move, it's amazing that anything gets bought."

A Good Market or a Bad Market
"Thousand of experts study overbought indicators, oversold indicators, head-and-shoulder patterns, put-call ratios, the Fed's policy on money supply, foreign investment, the movement of the constellations through the heavens, and the moss on oak trees, and they can't predict markets with any useful consistency." Is the current a good market? Please don't ask. Don't try to time the market.

The Perfect Stock
"Getting the story on a company is a lot easier if you understand the basic business. That's why I'd rather invest in panty hose than in communications satellites, or in motel chains than in fiber optics. The simpler it is, the better I like it. When somebody says, "Any idiot could run this joint," that's a plus as far as I'm concerned, because sooner or later any idiot probably is going to be running it."

How to find the tenbaggers
("In Wall Street parlance a "tenbagger" is a stock in which you've made ten times your money".)
Among other "qualities" to look for, explained by Mr. Lynch, the following are my favourites:
- Its name sounds dull - or, even better, ridiculous;
- It does something dull;
- The institutions don't own it, and the analysts don't follow it;
- It's got a niche;
- The insiders are buyers;
- The company is buying back shares.
Of course, Mr. Lynch describes in detail why he thinks you have to look for these aforementioned (and others) qualities in a stock to qualify it as a "buy"

The flaw in Book Value
"Book value gets a lot of attention these days - perhaps because it's such an easy number to find. You see it reported everywhere (...). People invest in these on the theory that if the book value is $20 a share and the stock sells for $10, they're getting something for half price. The flaw is that the stated book value often bears little relationship to the actual worth of the company. It often understates or overstates reality by a large margin. Penn Central had a book value of more than $60 a share when it went bankrupt!".

I can summarize the only weakness I found in this book after the following quotation:
"At one point I'd decided the motel industry was due for a cyclical turnaround. I'd already invested in United Inns, the largest franchiser of Holiday Inns, and I was keeping my ears open for other opportunities. During a telephone interview with a vice president at United Inns, I asked which company was Holiday Inn's most successful competitor.
"Asking about the competition is one of my favorite techniques for finding promising new stocks. Muckamucks speak negatively about the competition ninety-five percent of the time, and it doesn't mean much. But when an executive of one company admits he's impressed by another company, you can bet that company is doing something right. Nothing could be more bullish than a begrudging admiration from a rival.
"La Quinta Motors Inns", the vice president of United Inns enthused. They're doing a great job. They're killing us in Houston and in Dallas."
"He sounded very impressed, and so was I."

Well, I guess everybody out there can pick up the telephone and have a nice, revealing conversation about the competition with a big company's vice president, uh? Don't you believe this to likely happen to you as well, do you?
And just in case, SEC's Regulation Full Disclosure made it almost impossible anyway (God bless Arthur Levitt, former SEC chairman, who gave us the Reg FD - after Mr. Lynch wrote this book).

That aside, what a great book! I definitely recommend this timeless classic.
44 internautes sur 50 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 IF ONLY WE COULD FOLLOW HIS ADVICE 28 janvier 2000
Par Ahmed Bahey Alashram - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Broché
This is the sixth book I have read on investment in one year. Along with "A random walk down wall street" by Burton Malkiel it has bee the best and most informative. For a while I do not think I will read any investment books before I make sure I can follow Mr. lynch's SIMPLE AND PROFITABLE advice. His classification of stocks are great and his timing for buying and selling each of these classfication are also great (fast growers, slow growers, turnarounds, asset plays, cyclicals). His chapter "stocks I would avoid" is full of sincere warnings of foolish mistakes we make over and over. Add to this the introductory chapters where he explains why we should invest in what we already know makes this book a must read. It is amazing how many opportunities we all miss on stocks that are right in front of us, yet we ignore them and waste our time finding the hottest stocks when mostly these stocks are overly priced. Let me tell you about a small example of what I am talking about. I use Yahoo finance alot in my research almost on daily basis, but I never thought of knowing the company that provides it with all this wonderful information. And while once scrolling down the Yahoo page I read that Tibco Software provides it with the quote technology. (I remembered Lynch when he says that we spend most of our time trying to find the great stock when the great stock has been striving to find us). I rushed to check the stock out. Too bad it has already increased more than tenfold in a month time. GOOD LUCK TO ALL OF YOU WITH YOUR NEXT TEN BAGGERS.
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