Pattern and Repertoire in History [Anglais] [Relié]

This book reveals and teaches how to break history into constituent and comparable parts on the basis of dynamic similarities. The authors show how history is repeated not in long series of events but in modules of comparable events that contain recurrent features that are history's turning points. Comparability entails the insight that many sets of events have come to be standardized because they have become bundled within repertoires of behavior. Until there are major changes in the environment that disrupt ways of doing things, the predictability of history is that behavioral modules tend to repeat themselves. Longer sequences of events, the conventional stories of history, to the extent that they involve behaviors bundled into repertoires, can be decomposed into sequences of standardized modules, each a particular instance of a set of instances of that modules having occurred elsewhere in the same behavioral environment. The research required is to find data on the full range of variability in modules of the same class. The King's failed flight, for example, in the French Revolution, is but one instance of the flight of French and European Kings under similar circumstances in this event horizon, some successful as a means to return to power and some not. Regularities and predictions as to outcomes of modular behavior in a series of such behaviors can be learned by studying classes of modules. Not all behaviors, of course, are modular in this way, but many of the important event classes of history, as the authors show, may be composed modularly, and they offer clear instructions as to which and why.

Econophysicist Roehner and historian Syme show how this approach can revolutionize the study of history and illuminate current events and choices that are occurring within historical modules that are still active. They show how by layering the modular episodes in longer historical events, using the French Revolution and its European variants as a demonstration, we can come to understand the alternatives and outcomes of social conflicts. Revolutions are the focus of Part I. They take on a case that is more difficult, the American Revolution, because of its apparent uniqueness, and show how some of its modular components can be understood in the context of independence movements of European colonies in the Americas and elsewhere. Within this context they focus in on logistic and military aspects of the War of Independence to derive a regular and predictable series of modular histories. Approaching the history of later revolutions in another way, they begin with the characteristics of general strikes and strikes that begin regionally but mushroom into general strikes, and show the modules of behaviors and confrontations in which these occur. Part II takes up the recurrent modules of behavior involved in wars for territorial expansion. To understand recurrent behaviors and predictable outcomes of modules they emphasize attention to detail in logistic differences - and the importance of material, temporal and social constraints - to explain some of the differences in outcomes from one instance to another. Part III shows the prospects for a modular approach to history and the possibilities for historical forecasting.

Modular history is the not only the formidable practice of econophysicists such as Roehner who have turned their efforts to collaborations with historians and social scientists, but of a growing plurality of historical sociologists. Identifying comparable modules of history requires careful attention to recurrent events and are difficult to inventory but once adequate and comparable sources for such occurrences are located they may have, as revealed in this book, a simplicity of patterning that has been the key to the success of the physical sciences. I wish this book complete success in terms of a growing number of social scientists and historians who will pay attention to the lessons that it offers.