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The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System [Anglais] [Broché]

James Rickards

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The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System + Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis
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Revue de presse

A terrifically interesting and useful book...fascinating (Kenneth W. Dam, former deputy secretary of the Treasury and adviser to three presidents)

The Death of Money contains very big, provocative ideas clearly explained and delivered...Rickards's insight enables him to connect the dots in a way that few others can (John Hathaway, portfolio manager, Tocqueville Gold Fund)

The Death of Money is an important new book for those who worry about the future of our country (R. Christopher Whalen, noted bank analyst; author of Inflated)

The Death of Money is an engrossing account of the massive stresses accumulating in the global financial system. Any serious student of financial crises and their root causes needs to read this book (John H. Makin, Ph.D., resident scholar, American Enterprise Institute; former chief economist, Caxton Associates)

A great book makes you think differently about the world - and this one does just that (Don Young, twenty-five-time Institutional Investor All-Star Analyst) --Ce texte fait référence à l'édition Broché .

Présentation de l'éditeur

In The Death of Money - a New York Times bestseller and a Wall Street Journal bestseller - Rickards explores the future of the international monetary systemThe international monetary system has collapsed three times in the past hundred years. Each collapse was followed by a period of war, civil unrest, or damage to the stability of the global economy. Now James Rickards explains why another collapse is rapidly approaching.The US dollar has been the global reserve currency since the end of the Second World War. If the dollar fails the entire international monetary system will fail with it. But Washington is gridlocked, and America's biggest competitors - China, Russia, and the Middle East - are doing everything possible to end US monetary hegemony.The potential results: Financial warfare. Deflation. Hyperinflation. Market collapse. Chaos.James Rickards offers a bracing analysis of the fundamental problem: money and wealth have become ever more detached. Money is transitory and ephemeral; wealth is permanent and tangible. While wealth has real value worldwide, money may soon be worthless. The world's big players - governments, banks, institutions - will muddle through by making up new rules, and the real victims of the next crisis will be small investors. Fortunately, it is not too late to prepare for the coming death of money. In this riveting book, James Rickards shows us how.'A terrifically interesting and useful book...fascinating' Kenneth W. Dam, former deputy secretary of the Treasury and adviser to three presidentsJames Rickards is the author of Currency Wars, which has been translated into eight languages and won rave reviews from the Financial Times, Bloomberg, and Politico. He is a portfolio manager at West Shore Group and an adviser on international economics and financial threats to the Department of Defense and the U.S. intelligence community. He served as facilitator of the first-ever financial war games conducted by the Pentagon. He lives in Connecticut. --Ce texte fait référence à l'édition Broché .

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219 internautes sur 233 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Offers many fresh perspectives while covering familiar ground en route to commonly stated conclusions 4 avril 2014
Par Graham H. Seibert - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Format Kindle|Achat vérifié
The introduction suggests that this book is going to rehash some fairly common themes. Then, delightfully, the first chapters veers off on an unexpected tangent, followed by an equally astute, and unexpected second chapter.

The introduction suggests that we are in for a time of either inflation or deflation, and that they are both equally dangerous. The thesis he repeats throughout the book is that central banks favor inflation for a number of reasons, but that they are having a hard time forcing inflation it to occur. There is simply too much slack in the economy in the form of unused labor, capital, and production capacity. Other authors argue that increases in productivity are inherently deflationary: if automation reduces the cost of manufacturing a car, competitive pressures will force manufacturers to sell them cheaper.

The federal government must have inflation for four reasons. Deflation causes an increase in the real value of the federal debt. It has an adverse impact on the debt to GDP ratio. Third, although banks may benefit initially by being repaid more than they lent, the risk of default increases dramatically in a deflationary environment. The fourth and final problem with deflation is that it reduces federal tax income. As nominal earnings decrease, the tax rate schedules, which are graduated, yield less revenue in real terms. Though asset value may rise in real terms, you cannot tax capital gains unless the nominal value rises.

Central banks throughout the world are fighting the tide as they work to promote inflation. The result of Quantitative Easing has been massive malinvestment by those to whom the newly coined money has been funneled.

Chapter One covers the financial signals that telegraphed the World Trade Center attack, had anybody been astute enough to parse the evidence. Rickards consulted with the CIA during the decade of the 2000s, looking for ways in which markets predicted attacks on American interests. In analyzing how the terrorists benefitted financially from their own act, he offers a broad discussion of financial forensics. He matter-of-factly documents overwhelming evidence of insider trading and market manipulation. These are not central to his theme, except insofar as obviously rigged markets make investors wary.

Chapter Two discusses financial warfare. The key insight is that state actors are often more interested in relative than absolute strength. Every war has costs, but if country A can destroy country B at an acceptable cost to itself, it may do so. Destroying the dollar would have a major impact on dollar holders such as China, but at the same time increase their relative strength in the world. His analysis of the way the US used finance to cripple Iran and Syria is quite insightful. As Russia and China free themselves from reliance on the dollar, they might do the same to us.

Chapter Three analyzes the increased involvement of central banks in the economies of their countries, and the general ill effects of central planning. It didn't work for the communists, and it doesn't work for Yellen. The Fed gets tangled up when it targets inflation and unemployment statistics, when its own actions influence those statistics, and the Federal Government has ample room to fudge the measurement of the statistics. Any policy can be justified.

Of the four causes of economic depression, Rickards claims that the greatest is regime uncertainty. People refuse to invest when the rules keep changing. Amity Shlaes and others have concluded that Roosevelt prolonged the Depression by constantly changing the rules for labor unions and other politically favored groups. And Obama is doing the same, with the same result. Entrepreneurs are reluctant to invest, leaving a lot of capital and labor idle.

Fed policy of low interest rates is forcing people to take unusual risks in pursuit of a return. Neither common people nor money managers find it easy to sit tight and accept a zero return on capital for any period of time. Instead, they have been stampeded into the only games in town - overinflated real estate (again) and a rigged stock market. Interest rates, and especially the price of gold, have been forced down in order to push money into these bubbles.

Chapter Four focuses on China, beginning with a sweeping historical overview of the world's longest lived civilization. He observes that it swings rather regularly back and forth between centralization and decentralization, each in turn cleaning out the excesses of the other. This is a time of great malinvestment. Whereas consumers account for 71% of US spending, the figure for China is only 35%. For investment, it is 13% vs. 48%. The latter is an absurd figure, including vast amounts of malinvestment: empty cities, trains to nowhere, and the like. As in the US, the middle class is the victim. As their savings receive negative rates of return, vast amounts of money go into mutual-fund type vehicles which in turn invest in the bubble. It will not end well.

Though China, with $3 trillion in assets, could put its financial house in order, it will not. The powers that be make their money from the malinvestment. The growing wealth disparity represents a major threat to the regime.

Chapter Five is on Germany and the Euro Zone. It is refreshingly different from the mostly negative analyses most authors offer. He gives good reasons why the Euro should survive as a currency and cites optimistic statistics about the progress that the PIIGS, especially Greece, have made in cleaning up their economies. In particular he notes that contrary to the Keynes/Krugman theory of "sticky wages," wage rates have been able to fall by a whopping 22% even without abandoning the Euro. Moreover, Greece is attracting new investment.

The Euro zone is continuing to expand, with the recent admission of Latvia and Croatia, and the potential membership of Serbia, Macedonia and Turkey.

On the other hand, the Euro zone does suffer from a lack of uniformity in banking standards and deposit insurance. A bigger problem is that few of the member states meet the requirements for keeping their finances in order. They are to run deficits of no more than 3% if their Debt/GDP ratio is less than 60 (very few of them) and no more than  percent if debt is higher.

Chapter Six begins with a discussion of the BRICS, then goes on to the GIIPS (nice acronym for the PIIGS) and BELLS. The latter - Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - was new to me. His major point is that the BELLS swallowed their medicine after the crisis of 2008, accepting a plunge in the GDP and austerity, refusing to devalue, in order to retain investor confidence. The PIIGS did what the US has done - print money, in some cases devalue, and pretend the problem will go away. The BELLS have fared quite well - the PIIGS not so well.

He has a wonderful quote on Russia: "The Russian economy is best understood as a natural-resource-extraction racket run by oligarchs and politicians who skim enormous amounts off the top and reinvest just enough to keep the game going." That has been the game here in Ukraine as well, and the Maidan revolutions of 2004 and 2013 are attempts to wrench the country free of the oligarchs.

Chapter 7 - Debt, deficits and the dollar

What is the meaning of money? The classical definition is (1) a store of value, (2) a medium of exchange, and (3) a unit of account. These meanings are important, and Rickards has a great dissertation on the various points of view. This is a matter of practical import. Is gold money? Is Bitcoin money?

He offers an interesting view. We are already on the gold standard, in that anybody who wants to is free to buy gold and use it as a store of wealth. It is not in governments' interest that we do so, which is why they echo Keynes, calling it a "barbarous relic" and openly manipulate its price to make it unattractive. One reads so much about the manipulation that it is worth citing other sources. It is a major theme on zerohedge. Paul Craig Roberts did a good piece in January. The Gold Antitrust Committee covers it regularly, and I review Geheime Goldpolitik: Warum die Zentralbanken den Goldpreis steuern (German Edition).

Rickards says that government investment is justified if it satisfies three conditions: (1) only government could do it, (2) they can afford it, and (3) it has a positive return on investment. Two positive investments were the Interstate Highway System and the Internet. Most government investments, including just about everything Obama has done, do not qualify. They channel money the government cannot afford (has to print) to favored groups for investments (solar, education) which will never pay for themselves.

Chapter 8 is on the IMF, the banker to the world. At present the IMF's balance sheet is only about 600 billion, small compared to those of the central banks. His point is that the IMF is the ultimate backup when central banks fail. The IMF has recently, quietly gotten permission to act like a bank, lending in excess of the asset base formed by member-state quotas. The currently allowed ratio is a conservative (for banks) 3:1. But - the mechanism is in place to print vast amounts, if and when the world's central banks get in trouble.

The most interesting part of the chapter is a portrait of Dr. Min Zhu, the Chinese deputy to Christine Lagarde. He is a man who has seen both the Chinese and the Western systems, is smart enough to see the inherent contradictions within the IMF, and sometimes sufficiently candid to coyly reveal what he knows. A nice portrait. NB: Other illumination portraits in previous chapters include Andy Marshall of the Pentagon and Randy Tauss of the CIA. Rickards knows them not merely as a writer, but from having worked intimately with them.

One of the truths that is widely known in financial circles, but seldom admitted, is that today's economic problems are primarily structural rather than cyclical. Don't blame it on the business cycle. The changes in demography, technology and society are structural and will not reverse themselves. Neither Japan nor China will sprout a generation of new workers overnight. In the US, the number of people entitled to entitlements will not shrink; neither will the cost of "free" medicine.

His thesis is that the SDR, the IMF "currency" formed of a market basket of national currencies, could become a world currency. Moreover, it could, if his suggestions were followed, be pegged to gold as a deterrent to uncontrollable fiat currencies.

Chapter 9 - Gold

This is the meat of the matter. Gold is money. The purest money. It is not a commodity, despite where it may be traded, because unlike commodities it is rarely consumed, but used almost exclusively as a store of value.

Rickards writes openly and authoritatively about the ways in which central banks and government manipulate the price of gold.

Chapter 10 - Crossroads

Rickards writes as a throwaway that our governments are manipulating all the markets. It is so widely accepted as not to require amplification.

There is massive malinvestment, from Chinese ghost cities to US student loans. While the problems could be fixed, the structure of our political systems will almost certainly not allow it. The vested interests are too strong.

Chapter 11 - Maelstrom

Rickards has referred to complexity theory often throughout the book. Here he amplifies the discussion. Systems, especially those involving human beings, are simply too complex to be predicted. One never knows, by analogy, which snowflake will trigger the avalanche. All you can know is that an avalanche is likely.

He says that the crunch time is here for the Federal Reserve. There is a term used in complexity theory: a system about to fail goes wobbly, much as the top stars to wobble when it runs out of centrifugal force. He says that the Federal Reserve is already there, and it is unable to fill any of its roles other than to continue to monetize debt.

Conclusion

This is the pay dirt. Rather like a Biblical prophet, he lists seven signs of the end times. And most useful, he gives his assessment of how to brace for the storm. He would own gold, land, hedge funds invested in hard assets, fine art and cash.

Rickards cites a relative handful of sources repeatedly: Krugman, Reinhart and Rogoff, Bernanke, and Robert Rubin's acolytes. While he has an occasional good word for each of them, he is properly scathing when appropriate.

Rickards is more willing to accept official statistics on unemployment, inflation and the like than others. He does not express skepticism as to whether or not the gold is still in Fort Knox. The skeptics are well known - look at zerohedge - and I find it impressive that he can build such a strong case for the imminent "death of money" even taking government claims and statistics at face value.

The book could have been endlessly large. Subjects which Rickards chooses not to address are the declining quality of our human resources - poor education, and the skew of childbearing to the least capable members of society, the inexorable rise in entitlement spending, and the decline of the work ethic. See Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010 for this discussion.

All in all, a masterful job by a man who has lived with his subject for most of a lifetime, and yet writes with the clarity of a lifelong author. A rare treat.
40 internautes sur 43 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 Plenty to chew on 11 avril 2014
Par Erez Davidi - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Relié
I very much enjoyed Rickards' first book, "Currency Wars." This was a very good sequel, although in my opinion it doesn't rise to the same level.

The premise of the book is fairly straight forward: The current monetary system is unsustainable and it's bound to collapse. It all can be boiled down to a few reasons: debt, structural problems in the world economy, derivatives, and out-of-control increases in the money supply.

According to Rickards, it's only a question of time. Monetary collapse can sound quite alarmist to some. (The over-the-top title, probably selected by the editor, doesn't help). However, Rickards points out, rightfully so, that it is not as uncommon as people tend to think. In the past century alone, the international monetary system changed three times; the first after WWI, the second after WWII (Bretton Woods agreement), the third was in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window.

Even though I tend think that a change, at least to some degree, of the monetary system is definitely in the cards, I was not fully convinced by Rickards' arguments. As well, I found the first few chapters on the financial wars entirely unrelated to the premise of the book. Having said that, some chapters were original and intriguing, such as the chapters on the IMF, which will take the lead rule in the new monetary system to come.

I suspect that a lot of readers will not agree with everything Rickards has to say, but I also suspect that a lot of readers will learn something new by reading this thought-provoking book.
33 internautes sur 36 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 One of the authors which marked the economics scene in the last 5 years 10 avril 2014
Par Denis Vukosav - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Relié
‘The Death of Money’ written by James Rickards, although of somewhat apocalyptic name commonly referred to books that only manage to attract with their title, is actually an interesting book that approaches economic issues in a professional and informed manner, in same time being thought-provoking.

The author has succeeded in his book to develop its subject in less than four hundred pages, which is not so often, considering that the books which at the same time speak about economic theory and predictions of the future are usually very extensive, and often illegible except for a narrow academic circle.

I read Rickards previous book ‘Currency Wars’ and his economic forecasts, given that I share same profession with author, largely coincide with my own; consequently I really liked his book.

Exactly the same situation is with his latest book in which the author foreshadows an interesting (at least on paper) future of money and all that could start happening in the world economy in case of some scenarios already seen in the past would repeat.

And even after reading the book it seems that the end is near, the author gives recommendations on how to survive the uncertain times that lie ahead; he gives reasons why this is the right time to change money into objects whose value will certainly not decline in uncertain times that expect the world's currencies, things that have proven its value through the history, such as works of art, land or gold.

I would not go into the discussion chapter by chapter because my fellow reviewer has done it exceptionally-well and there is no need to repeat, but in any case I can recommend this book to all those who enjoy reading about the economics, and have more advanced knowledge or are at least willing to learn about it.

After reading the author’s two books, it can be certainly said that James Rickards is one of the authors that marked the economics scene in the last 5 years, so all the recommendations to this as well as his previous work.
66 internautes sur 80 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
2.0 étoiles sur 5 A CIA-Centric Analysis 23 avril 2014
Par Tom G - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Format Kindle|Achat vérifié
In interviews Jim Rickards frequently refers to his war games work with the CIA. He sure sounds like an insider and that's good right? It can be if your team has a good track record. So, who's on the team?

In the Death of Money Jim Rickards calls the fictional 911 Commission Report a "monumental and excellent summary". He scoffs at the suggestion of US government involvement and, as expected, won't discuss the free-fall of Building 7 or the coincidental direct hit on the Pentagon in the exact area where they were investigating the trillions in unaccounted defense dollars. These and many other facts contradict the commission report but Rickards is able to compartmentalize away these exceptions to his preferred conclusion.

He then discusses financial markets and the insider trading prior to 911. He says the trading was started by someone in the terrorists' social network (no proof supplied) and Wall Street traders piled onto the little trade to turn it into an innocent big trade. This was explained, Rickards says, by former CIA man Randy Tauss who likes to trade options as a sideline and figured it all out. Really! So, it was a foreign terrorist who did the insider trade and not someone in-the-know within the US? Not true. Max Keiser was one of Wall Street's biggest options traders at the time. He says the trades smell like CIA. "millions of dollars worth of profits from 9/11 insider trading still sit uncollected in an Alex Brown account in Baltimore, just down the road from the CIA's HQ at Langley." (rt.com/op-edge/158988-bankers-killing-suicide-fraud/)

What else did Tauss figure out? I'd ask you to google Randy Tauss and TWA Flight 800. Rickards says Tauss while employed by the CIA solved the mystery of the 1996 TWA Flight 800 crash that killed over 200 people. Not so fast, Jim. Tauss has been accused of putting together an inaccurate video narrative which took researchers on the wrong path. "On June 19, 2013, a documentary alleging that the investigation into the crash was a cover-up ... with statements from six members of the original investigation team, now retired, who also filed a petition to reopen the probe." (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TWA_Flight_800_conspiracy_theories). Senior investigators say the NTSB final report is wrong and they were intimidated by the FBI to go along with the lie. Government claptrap and disinformation permeates the mainstream news. It wasn't a flash fire but a Navy missile mistake that brought down Flight 800. The facts support the dissenting investigators. [...]

Randy Tauss and Jim Rickards both are managing directors at Onmis, an information analytics firm.
(omnisinc.com/directors.php). Judging by the directors, this firm is loaded with CIA/Intelligence types. Another director, Charles Deulfler, "led the Iraq Survey Group (ISG) that conducted the investigation of the scope of Iraq's WMD". I get the feeling these guys are telling the intelligence community that their firm is available to spread preferred memes to the American public. Too harsh? Folks, look at the insane wars and now the activities of the NSA. In DC, influence and corruption are always for sale.

Rickard's book reads like a scenario planning white paper. The IMF with its SDRs is the desired outcome for the security state because the existing framework provides for an orderly financial reconstruction and the possibility for renewed American dominance. To me, the book starts with the desired CIA conclusion and works backwards. I think Rickards is sincere and confident and his book is a smart analysis. However, we know the CIA has made a mess of the Middle East and is implicated in assassinations, gun running, importing cocaine into American inner cities and much more. White papers preceded each of these disastrous outcomes.

I don't have a high confidence level in this kind of scenario planning but it's necessary to start somewhere. The Death of Money is a well written work by a keen mind and presents actionable advice. Mr. Rickards might be right but the actual end game could be much more chaotic. I agree with Rickards that American pensions and entitlements will be early victims of economic chaos. If nothing else the book should prod readers to take a defensive position immediately.

Readers should keep in mind that Rickards seems to have a strong national security state bias. These people have a wag the dog world view that can be self deluding. I'm especially concerned by his belief in the 911 propaganda and question his judgment when he calls Rumsfeld, Cheney and Wolfowitz "giants of national security policy". I guess this obsequiousness is a requirement though for splashing around in D.C.'s profitable national security cesspool. Rickard's advice to buy expensive art and vacant land is not something middle class people should do. Readers should carefully consider his ideas but not abandon critical thinking.
13 internautes sur 14 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Crucial Roadmap For the Future of the Global Economic Landscape - This Book Deserves Ten Stars 14 avril 2014
Par Nancy Berg - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Relié
James Rickards once again delivers an outstanding book regarding the international monetary system and the weight it bears on not only the economy, but geopolitics as well. Rickards initially sets the tone by illuminating the historical paths of previous monetary collapse, inflation, deflation and economic complexity. He illuminates economic complexity as an exponential risk for catastrophe. Rickards then teaches and guides the reader regarding the implications of the collapse of the dollar and the ubiquitous global ramifications.

As was the case with his first book Currency Wars, The Death of Money is not only rich with analysis, conclusive evidence and prediction – Rickards weaves his vast and varied domestic and global dealings into a vivid tapestry that provides readers a glimpse into a world of intrigue, investigation and behind-closed-door planning at high levels. Unlike so many books addressing economics, The Death of Money is not just a book for market or econ-wonks, but *essential* reading for those interested in analyzing current and future geopolitical ramifications, with global markets as an important and unmistakable linchpin in asymmetric warfare. Rickards is masterful at addressing this vital interconnectivity like no other.

From 9-11 insider trading to China's financial warlords to U.S. monetary and fiscal policy; this book covers more territory than you might expect. It is an important resource not only for market and geopolitical professionals, but average investors and consumers as well. Rickards generously concludes the book with recommendations for investing to protect personal assets before the economic landscape shifts in a way most will not see coming.

Much like Currency Wars, I will be reading this several times over as monetary and economic history unfolds in real-time. Jim Rickards has the most uncanny ability to accurately analyze and predict what lies ahead, and important steps to protect personal assets. The Death of Money is a must-read.
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