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The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World (with a New Foreword) [Anglais] [Broché]

Ian Bremmer , Preston Keat
5.0 étoiles sur 5  Voir tous les commentaires (1 commentaire client)
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Descriptions du produit

Revue de presse

In an uncertain age in which everyone from individual investors and CEOs to journalists and heads of state seems at times to be grasping in the dark for insights to where we are heading, Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat have given us a unique roadmap, a forecasting toolkit that shines a light on our possible futures. (Advance Praise from Robert Kagan, author of 'The Return of History and the End of Dreams')

Wary of political risk and what it can do for you? Read this book which provides, replete with significant examples, how this growing art, with touches of science, can help you understand markets, investment climate, and the many changing economic circumstances impacted by critical political and security events around the world. Bremmer and Keat, both masters of this medium with many years experience, tell us how to understand political events and to gauge their impact on the critical business and economic decisions that many of us must make daily. (Advance Praise from Thomas R Pickering, former US Ambassador to the United Nations)

Bremmer and Keat are right: economics produces cycles and even crises, but it is politics that has the power to turn crises into profound and lasting dramas. Their book should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even-perhaps especially-in places that seem politically stable. (Advance Praise from Bill Emmott, editor-in-chief of 'The Economist' 1996-2003 and author of 'Rivals')

Political risk has become increasingly complex, and 'The Fat Tail' provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multi-national interests. Advance Praise from Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. --Ce texte fait référence à l'édition Relié .

Présentation de l'éditeur

As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreword that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests." --Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist

Détails sur le produit

  • Broché: 272 pages
  • Editeur : OUP USA; Édition : Revised edition (8 juillet 2010)
  • Langue : Anglais
  • ISBN-10: 0199737274
  • ISBN-13: 978-0199737277
  • Dimensions du produit: 2 x 15 x 22,8 cm
  • Moyenne des commentaires client : 5.0 étoiles sur 5  Voir tous les commentaires (1 commentaire client)
  • Classement des meilleures ventes d'Amazon: 128.615 en Livres anglais et étrangers (Voir les 100 premiers en Livres anglais et étrangers)
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Commentaires client les plus utiles
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Loved the history parts! 7 janvier 2014
Format:Format Kindle|Achat vérifié
Amazingly detailed! It would be great to have an updated version with even more recent examples. I really enjoyed the book.
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Amazon.com: 3.9 étoiles sur 5  51 commentaires
20 internautes sur 20 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 Business Risk and the Global Economy 27 mars 2009
Par Bryan Carey - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Relié|Commentaire client Vine pour produit gratuit (De quoi s'agit-il?)
Risk is an inherent part of business and anyone who has managed a business at any level knows that risk comes into play on a daily basis. In today's modern, global economy, the risks are greater than before and are often more difficult to predict. The Fat Tail is a book that discusses many of these unique risks, offering some ideas for spotting these risks and taking the proper precautions to make sure the effects are minimized.

I have worked for many years in management and I am fully aware of these additional risks. It would be nice if risk was limited to supply/demand issues or employee retention but, unfortunately, risk is much more widespread than in the past and we have the global economy to thank for much of this. Some precautions can be taken, but there are some risks that cannot be controlled as well as others. A civil war, excessive regulation, foreign currency exchange issues, expropriation, and many other unforeseen events can cause a drastic change to the business climate and thus have a dramatic effect on business. The Fat Tail discusses these many different types of risk that we, as managers, face in the new century and I can relate directly to what much of it says.

To backup its key points, The Fat Tail offers many examples from history that show how an unexpected event led to complete turmoil in every facet of life. In the past, revolutions and the lack of sufficient warnings were often cited among the many reasons why businesses suffered extraordinary losses. Today, certain countries of the world are known for their political instability and information regarding instability is more easily obtained, thanks to the information age in which we live. However, there are new risks today that are not always easy to predict, such as state failure, terrorism, expropriation, and more. And the fact that nothing has happened yet in a particular country is one of the main reasons why the potential for business disaster is so great. Like The Fat Tail points out, management personnel tends to get too relaxed when nothing bad has happened for a period of time and because of this, they are likely to let their guard down. Thus, when a political problem arises, many businesses will be trapped in a no- win predicament that could cost millions and could possibly even bankrupt the company.

The Fat Tail is written in a very academic way. The authors write this book like graduate- level university students composing a long research paper. They forgo creative writing skill in favor of the facts. They want you, the middle or upper manager of a business, to know the potential problems that await you if you do not take foreign risks more seriously. They offer historic examples that show what can happen if you develop the dangerous attitude that says "it can't happen to us". They want companies to be prepared for the worst and they offer some advice on ways to stay alert and protect one's business interests.

Risk is all around us and its complexity is greater than ever before. Management personnel in the United States are fully aware of the problems that can result due to terrorism but terrorism is only one of many potential disasters that businesses face each day. Refusing to recognize these threats and failing to take any precautions could lead to serious problems down the road and The Fat Tail wants to make sure that businesses, as well as individual investors, are prepared for the worst.
16 internautes sur 18 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 A helpful look at how global politics can affect investing 10 février 2009
Par Edward Durney - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Relié|Commentaire client Vine pour produit gratuit (De quoi s'agit-il?)
I've read many books on investing. But none of them covered this topic - how global politics can affect investing. As the book's title suggests, political risks often fall into a "fat tail," the spot on a bell curve where you would expect the probability to tail off, but where it instead remains high or "fat."

That means political risks should be given close attention, since they can mean more than we might otherwise think. They often turn out to be Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "black swans" that are unsuspected until they are spotted. The "unknown unknowns" that Donald Rumsfeld famously talked about. The more we can learn about these risks, the less risk we will take.

The book's authors make their living at the Eurasia Group, which does this type of political risk analysis for companies for a fee. So they try to hard to show that "political risk matters" (the first sentence in the book). They do a pretty good job of making their case, with a slew of stories from history that show how political risks have turned good investments bad.

As good as the stories are, from the initial conquest of India in 1757 by a private army hired by a British corporation to the Russian government's default in 1998 on its debt, the quotations heading each chapter were also gems. Like Alfred Hitchcock's "There is no terror in a bang, only in the anticipation of it" heads Chapter 6: Terrorism. And citing rules like "buy when there is blood in the streets" brings powerful images to the often staid world of investing.

Just one caution about the book. Its original subtitle was "The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World." That's more what the book is about. The subtitle later chosen - "The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing" - seems a bit off focus. This is a book about minimizing risk, not maximizing return, as the later subtitle suggests.

This book takes a look at history from an interesting, and rather unique, angle. I enjoyed reading it.
8 internautes sur 8 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Political risk may affect your investments 13 août 2009
Par Mariusz Skonieczny - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Relié
Investors may evaluate the current state of the economy and read the financial statements of individual companies, but few ever consider the political issues in their investment decisions. The authors of this book argue that the political climate is important to investing. Remember when Russia defaulted on its debt? This single event started the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, which almost brought the entire financial system to ruin.

The authors say because world trade is becoming more global, it is becoming more important than ever not to ignore political risk. I thought this book was worth reading.

- Mariusz Skonieczny, author of Why Are We So Clueless about the Stock Market? Learn how to invest your money, how to pick stocks, and how to make money in the stock market
6 internautes sur 6 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Fascinating must read book for news junkies 18 juin 2009
Par A. D. Boorman - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Relié|Commentaire client Vine pour produit gratuit (De quoi s'agit-il?)
I did not come to this book to be surprised. I understood the basic concept before I even opened the book: Politics and economics are interrelated. They use the simple aphorism "political risk matters.'

I knew that. What I did not understand was HOW

This book did not make me an expert in the interaction of economics(local, national, and world) on economics (same scopes), but it did give me a framework in which to examine and evaluate world events. Anybody who has taken a business stat course knows that risk = damage X probability. This book evaluates that risk in terms of the unforseen risks, what former Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld called "unknown unknowns.' There are those unexapcted events whose occurence change everything. How do people evaluate risk in terms of those unforseen political events?

That is what this book is about. It is concise. It is easy to read. The authors describe their principles, and explain them in layman's terms. They cite historical examples and explain them in detail.

It's an interesting book for news junkies. If you're one of those people who always has to watch multiple news reports and reads the news and the editorials before the sports and the comics, then you will enjoy this book. It will give you tools that you WILL use.
5 internautes sur 5 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 Political risk outside the bell curve 30 mars 2009
Par Steve Burns - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format:Relié|Commentaire client Vine pour produit gratuit (De quoi s'agit-il?)
This book examines the political risks to investments outside the normal risk in a standard world seen as a bell curve. As the bell curve exists there are "Bumps" in its flow or "Fat Tails" of unimagined occurrences. Some of these were the Russian bond default that brought down Long Term Capital Management and the 1998 Asian Financial crises. While these are one in a hundred years events it only takes one to destroy a company if risk is not managed properly. Much like the old White Swan theory that believed with no doubt that swans were always white, it only took one black swan in Australia to prove the belief to be 100% wrong even though it was thought of as fact.
This book describes how to deal with uncertainty. The role Geopolitics play in investing. The political risk that exists in countries based on their social discontent and leadership. You will see the impact domestic instability, revolution, civil war, and state failure has effected investments in the past. How terrorism could effect businesses in the future based on the past. You will see how to detect the inherent dangers of expropriation in socialist and communist countries.
A very interesting examination of a dynamic of risk that is so much over looked in our modern world of great hopes for the BRIC countries. Serious risks still exist in the world in our modern time, and this book will show you how to see patterns emerging to safeguard yourself.
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