In a recent review for a best-selling book "America Alone," one of Amazon's top 30 reviewers had just one "major complaint."
"(Author) Mark Steyn does a great job describing where we're at NOW, and where we might be in thirty years, but offers almost nothing about what could happen in the middle. A lot of events will occur between now and then" (for instance) "radical Islam could implode --- simultaneously squeezed from the outside by the United States and from within by substantial . . . differences among the branches of Islam."
For all of us asking the same question, "What's going to happen there next?" I believe the most enlightening answers are available right here -- in this beautifully written, deeply insightful book by Fouad Ajami: "The Foreigner's Gift: Americans, Arabs and Iraqis in Iraq."
A teacher at Johns Hopkins University ("2006 recipient of the Bradley Prize") Ajami enlightens us on why things will get better in Iraq - eventually. But in the meantime he says,
"Pity those men now hunkered down in Baghdad . . . as they walk a fine, thin line between the yearning for justice and retribution in their land, and the scrutiny of the outside world."
"In the fullness of time," the author says, "the Arab world's order of power will come to a grudging acceptance of the order that is sure to take hold in Baghdad." This is after all, a region which "respects the prerogatives of power." Of all Arab lands, "Iraq is the most checkered -- a frontier country at the crossroads of Arabia, Turkey and Persia" . . . and "Sunni Arabs in Iraq and beyond have never accepted (such) diversity."
The author quotes one of Iraq's "most respected scholar-diplomats" as saying "It is proper now, to speak of an `American Iraq' as once we spoke, in turn, of a Sumerian, Babylonian, Ottoman, and British (Sunni) Iraq."
The new reality is "American-SHIA." As a result, the author says, militant preachers railing against `American crusaders' and `Shiite heretics' cannot prevail.
Another good sign: Sunni regimes are not of one mind on Iraq: "Curiously," says the author, "the Arab state most likely to make peace with the new reality of Iraq is Saudi Arabia (whose) King Abdullah has read the wind with accuracy: He has a Shia minority in his domain (in the oil-rich eastern province) and he seems eager to cap the Wahhabi (SUNNI) volcano in the heartland of his kingdom."
"There is a pragmatism there," says the author, "that should give us cause for hope: a pragmatism "that lives by its own coin." In contrast "Jordan and Egypt present the odd spectacle of countries in the forefront of the anti-Shiite drive - but which have "no Shia citizenry in their midst." Regimes that "derive a good measure of their revenues from foreign powers -- the subsidies of Pax Americana to be exact." So the threat of Shiism is "a good, and lucrative, scarecrow for the rulers in Cairo and Amman: and the promise of standing sentry in defense of the Sunni order is what these two regimes have to offer both America and the oil states."
After his sure-footed assessment of why the current Maliki government in Iraq can succeed in its "marriage of convenience" with America, the author states that, with Saddam's execution, this prime minister "made himself a power in the vast Shia mainstream, America's success in Iraq now depends on him."
And with a "balance of terror" between Sunni and Shia, the "Sunni Arabs know that their old dominion is lost," (that) "they had better take the offer on the table . . . a share of oil revenues and access to political power -- in return for reining-in the violence and banishing the Arab jihadists."
This is the country "midwifed by American power," says the author. "We were never meant to stay there long. Iraq will never approximate the expectations we projected onto it in more innocent times. But we should be able to grant it the gift of acceptance, and yet another dose of patience - as it works its way out of its current torments.
"It's said that much of the war's `nobility' has been drained out of it - that we now fight not to lose, and to keep intact our larger position in the oil lands of the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf." Maybe "not the stuff of glory," Ajami says "but it has power and legitimacy all its own."