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The Second Machine Age - Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies [Anglais] [Relié]

Erik Brynjolfsson , Andrew Mcafee
4.5 étoiles sur 5  Voir tous les commentaires (2 commentaires client)
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The Second Machine Age - Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies + Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy + L'ère numérique, un nouvel âge de l'humanité : Cinq mutations qui vont bouleverser notre vie
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Détails sur le produit

  • Relié: 304 pages
  • Editeur : W. W. Norton & Company (18 février 2014)
  • Langue : Anglais
  • ISBN-10: 0393239357
  • ISBN-13: 978-0393239355
  • Dimensions du produit: 23,6 x 16 x 3,3 cm
  • Moyenne des commentaires client : 4.5 étoiles sur 5  Voir tous les commentaires (2 commentaires client)
  • Classement des meilleures ventes d'Amazon: 276 en Livres anglais et étrangers (Voir les 100 premiers en Livres anglais et étrangers)
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3 internautes sur 3 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 A Brief Summary and Review 14 février 2014
Format:Format Kindle
*A full executive summary of this book is available at newbooksinbrief dot com.

The main argument: In the first machine age--otherwise known as the Industrial Revolution--we humans managed to build technologies that allowed us to overcome the limitations of muscle power like never before. The result, which has reverberated these past 200 years, has been an increase in economic productivity unprecedented in human history. And the corollary of this increase in productive power has been an increase in material standard of living and social development equally as unprecedented.

In the past 30 years, with the rise of computers and other digital technologies, we have moved from overcoming our physical limitations, to overcoming our mental ones. This is the second machine age. Though we are still at the dawn of the second machine age, it already shows at least as much promise in boosting productivity (and quality of life) as the first. Indeed, by various measures--including the standard ones of GDP and corporate profits--we can see that the past 30 years has witnessed an impressive steepening in productivity.

And this is just the beginning. For digital technology continues to advance at an exponential pace; more digital information is being produced (and kept) all the time (all of which has enormous economic potential); and new ways of combining existing (and new) ideas into newer and better ones are ever being found.

Still, what is equally apparent is that the benefits of this steepening in productivity have gone to the few, rather than the many.
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5.0 étoiles sur 5 A very good book about the very next future 7 avril 2014
Format:Relié|Achat authentifié par Amazon
Easy to read and well-researched , and a very good balance between economic and social problems . An interesting and useful book !
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Commentaires client les plus utiles sur (beta) 4.3 étoiles sur 5  132 commentaires
101 internautes sur 107 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 A New Age of Smart Machines 14 janvier 2014
Par Bill Jarvis - Publié sur
Format:Format Kindle
In "The Second Machine Age," Brynjolfsson and McAfee argue that as technology advances exponentially and combinatorially it is taking us into an entirely new era. In the future we can expect more of everything, including both tangible goods and digital products and services, at lower and lower prices. They call this "Bounty." There is a dark side as well, however. Machines and computers are increasingly substituting for routine human labor, and technology is a major driver of increased inequality. The authors call this "Spread".

In addition to this book, I'd also strongly suggest reading The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future. That book takes a somewhat longer view and asks where all this will lead in the coming decades. The answers and the proposed solutions are less conventional and more controversial.

The Second Machine Age gives many examples of specific technologies like robots, AI and autonomous cars, and also lots of data showing how the economy is being transformed. The authors also make a strong argument that the way economists measure things, especially in terms of GDP, no longer does a good job of capturing what prosperity really means in the information age.

The book includes suggestions for both individuals and policy makers. Brynjolfsson and McAfee suggest that workers should learn to "race with the machines" (rather than against them), although the advice here isn't very specific beyond getting the best education you can. The authors are hopeful that innovations like massive free online courses (MOOCs) will help more people to make this transition.

There are lots of policy suggestions including reforming education to pay teachers more but also make them accountable, jump starting entrepreneurship, better job matching technologies, investing more in basic scientific research, upgrading national infrastructure, expanding skilled immigration, implementing smarter taxes, expanding the earned income tax credit (EITC), etc. In the long run, the authors also offer lukewarm support for the possibility of a guaranteed income or negative income tax.

Overall, "The Second Machine Age" does a good job of identifying and explaining the forces that will be critical to the economy and job market of future. The book has a basically optimistic tone, but I think a lot of the trends it points out are going to be really bad news for a lot of people.
41 internautes sur 44 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 A cogent discussion of where we are and where we're headed 27 janvier 2014
Par Steven Grimm - Publié sur
Format:Format Kindle|Achat authentifié par Amazon
This covers a lot of the same ground as books such as "The Lights in the Tunnel" but in a more pop-academic style: the prose is all very accessible but the information is extensively footnoted and attributed, and there are numerous references to the work of other academics, mostly but not exclusively economists. For anyone who wonders why we're seeing record-high income inequality and jobless recoveries from recessions, this book will clear up a lot of mysteries.

As someone in the technology field myself, I found little to disagree with in the book's treatment of recent and upcoming technological advances, which occupies the first several chapters; the authors have done their homework and have visited enough research labs and company R&D departments to have a very realistic picture of what's just over the horizon. There'll be nothing earth-shattering here for readers who follow technology trends or even who read WIRED magazine, but the book looks at all these things through a somewhat different lens (its impact on human work) than the tech press usually does, and I didn't find myself skimming even when they were covering developments with which I'm already very familiar.

For me, the best stretch of the book was chapters 7 through 11, when the focus moves to the effects of recent technological advances on the economy and on the study of economics itself. The authors build a compelling case that income inequality is much more a consequence of the move to a digital economy than of any particular government policy. I found their take on globalization especially interesting: they view it as a big contributor to the rise in income of the world's top earners, but not for the reasons people usually think. I already tended toward this view, but now I'm further convinced that some of the changes we've seen in wealth distribution are primarily due to deep structural changes in the way the world works and won't be undone by tax policy.

I found the book less convincing in its final chapters, where the authors suggest steps that can be taken to avert widespread unemployment and social disorder. Their short-term prescriptions are sensible enough (basically: take steps to encourage general economic growth) but, as the authors themselves point out, these won't address the underlying problem, identified by Keynes among others, of technological change outpacing the ability of large segments of the workforce to retrain for new jobs. They offer a few examples of systems that make it easier to find occasional part-time work and suggest that these could be expanded in the future, but as far as I can tell their vision would still leave people mostly idle. They are optimistic about the ability of people to continue finding work but I didn't feel it was justified by the picture their text painted.

Still, this is about the best treatment I've found of the question of how technology is likely to affect work over the next couple decades. Highly recommended.
19 internautes sur 22 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
2.0 étoiles sur 5 Disappointing -- retelling the race against the machine. 20 février 2014
Par Mark P. McDonald - Publié sur
Format:Format Kindle|Achat authentifié par Amazon
Brynjolfsson is one of the most forward and provocative thinkers out there about technology and its impact on economics. The book he co-authored with Andy McAfee "Race Against the Machine" is one of the best books I have read in a long time. This book repeats much of what is in Race against the Machine, giving it a more positive spin. If you have read the first book, there really is no reason to read this one. The Second Machine Age rewords much of Brynjolfsson's TED talk of the a similar name. The TED Talk is highly recommended and provides a good overview of what you will find in this book.

Big ideas, like those Brynjolfsson talks about are hard to come by and that is what makes them valuable. I had hoped that this book developed these ideas further, rather than largely restating them. That said if you have never read "Race" this book is just as good as the other.
11 internautes sur 13 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 Good but long 28 janvier 2014
Par B. Allyn - Publié sur
In all, a very good and informative read, although the key ideas are not new to readers of Jeremy Rifkin's 1994 book "The End of Work", which, unfortunately, is not mentioned.

I especially liked the argument that "growth" is increasingly inadequately captured by GDP growth, and the point that the present fiscal system is too much labor-oriented. In general, the diagnosis was excellent. The solutions outlined by the authors, however, were much too short-term in my eyes. Especially since the authors stress that we are at an "inflection point" of history, focusing on quick fixes of the status quo (better education etc) is a little myopic. We need to be prepared for a largely laborless society within our lifetimes, which will require huge changes in the distribution of income, as the authors themselves acknowledge. This big transition will take a lot of time, so it must be started now. The authors were too light on outlining the long-term solutions. For example, how are governments going to finance negative income taxes for the legions on un(der)employed, and the necessary investments in science and infrastructure? I would have liked more detailed visions on the solutions for the "android experiment".

Lastly, for a book about technology, the ebook version is funny in that the final 15% consist of a (completely useless because the keywords are unlinked) index; it's also highly misleading as the main text already ends at 67% of the ebook. In general, the book makes the impression that it could have used another round of editing
3 internautes sur 3 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
3.0 étoiles sur 5 More like a new edition of "the race against the machine" than a distinct book 9 avril 2014
Par DJ Southlove - Publié sur
Format:Relié|Achat authentifié par Amazon
This is a decent book, and well-written. But I didn't learn anything new, and it seemed like a lot of the material was recycled from the authors' previous book "the race against the machine". If you're already familiar with the hackneyed case studies of Moore's law, self-driving cars and Jeopardy-winning supercomputers, you may wish to opt for the Cliff Notes.

Free-market economists focusing on technological unemployment need to address two central issues: 1. After the end of work, where are the unemployed masses going go get money to live on? 2. Assuming this money will come from governments, how can sufficient taxes be collected without chasing private wealth away to offshore tax havens?

In keeping with the genre, this book's answer to the first issue errs toward holding hands and singing "kum ba yah" (e.g. improve education, invest in infrastructure...) The authors do discuss the idea of unconditional welfare, although confusingly they eschew a universal basic income in favor of a negative income tax, without explaining what they perceive to be the fundamental distinction between these. They also propose that humans are in general incapable of a fulfilling life without having a boss to tell them what to do all day. Perhaps the authors should contemplate this idea more deeply while working for a year at Starbucks. They may be right, but they at least need to show more evidence.

The book briefly acknowledges the second issue, and the authors do discuss raising property taxes among other ideas. But their recommendation of higher consumption taxes loses sight of the likelihood that in the future most consumption could be funded by welfare money. Funding the welfare itself with consumption taxes sounds like a fiscal perpetual motion machine.
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