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The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies [Livre audio] [Anglais] [CD]

Erik Brynjolfsson , Andrew McAfee , Jeff Cummings
4.8 étoiles sur 5  Voir tous les commentaires (4 commentaires client)
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The Second Machine Age A revolution is under way. In recent years, Google's autonomous cars have logged thousands of miles on American highways and IBM's Watson trounced the best human Jeopardy! players. Digital technologies?with hardware, software, and networks at their core?will in the near future diagnose diseases more accurately than doctors can, apply enormous data sets to transform retailing, and accomplish many tasks once considered uniquely human. In The Second Machine Age MIT's Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee?two thinkers at the forefront of their field?reveal the forces driving the reinvention of our lives and our economy. As the full impact of digital technologies i...

Détails sur le produit

  • CD
  • Editeur : Brilliance Audio; Édition : Unabridged (20 janvier 2014)
  • Langue : Anglais
  • ISBN-10: 1480577456
  • ISBN-13: 978-1480577459
  • Dimensions du produit: 13,7 x 16,5 x 2,8 cm
  • Moyenne des commentaires client : 4.8 étoiles sur 5  Voir tous les commentaires (4 commentaires client)
  • Classement des meilleures ventes d'Amazon: 238.716 en Livres anglais et étrangers (Voir les 100 premiers en Livres anglais et étrangers)
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4 internautes sur 4 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 A Brief Summary and Review 14 février 2014
Format:Format Kindle
*A full executive summary of this book is available at newbooksinbrief dot com.

The main argument: In the first machine age--otherwise known as the Industrial Revolution--we humans managed to build technologies that allowed us to overcome the limitations of muscle power like never before. The result, which has reverberated these past 200 years, has been an increase in economic productivity unprecedented in human history. And the corollary of this increase in productive power has been an increase in material standard of living and social development equally as unprecedented.

In the past 30 years, with the rise of computers and other digital technologies, we have moved from overcoming our physical limitations, to overcoming our mental ones. This is the second machine age. Though we are still at the dawn of the second machine age, it already shows at least as much promise in boosting productivity (and quality of life) as the first. Indeed, by various measures--including the standard ones of GDP and corporate profits--we can see that the past 30 years has witnessed an impressive steepening in productivity.

And this is just the beginning. For digital technology continues to advance at an exponential pace; more digital information is being produced (and kept) all the time (all of which has enormous economic potential); and new ways of combining existing (and new) ideas into newer and better ones are ever being found.

Still, what is equally apparent is that the benefits of this steepening in productivity have gone to the few, rather than the many.
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2 internautes sur 2 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Un ouvrage remarquable 2 mai 2014
Par Pitou74
Format:Relié|Achat vérifié
Le propos est très clair, le discours pédagogique mais pas simpliste. Pour ceux qui veulent comprendre et décrypter finement les enjeux de cette nouvelle ère numérique, cet ouvrage est vraiment une lecture incontournable.
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1 internautes sur 1 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Fantastisch ! 17 avril 2014
Par Manfred
Format:Format Kindle|Achat vérifié
Dieses Buch ist sehr gut recherchiert und liefert mannigfaltige Denkanstöße. Die Menschheit ist mehr denn je gefordert, über ihre Werte nachzudenken, denn nur sie sind der Kompass im sich rasant entwickelnden digitalen Zeitalter.
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1 internautes sur 1 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 A very good book about the very next future 7 avril 2014
Format:Relié|Achat vérifié
Easy to read and well-researched , and a very good balance between economic and social problems . An interesting and useful book !
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Commentaires client les plus utiles sur (beta) 4.4 étoiles sur 5  241 commentaires
125 internautes sur 131 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 A New Age of Smart Machines 14 janvier 2014
Par Bill Jarvis - Publié sur
Format:Format Kindle
In "The Second Machine Age," Brynjolfsson and McAfee argue that as technology advances exponentially and combinatorially it is taking us into an entirely new era. In the future we can expect more of everything, including both tangible goods and digital products and services, at lower and lower prices. They call this "Bounty." There is a dark side as well, however. Machines and computers are increasingly substituting for routine human labor, and technology is a major driver of increased inequality. The authors call this "Spread".

In addition to this book, I'd also strongly suggest reading The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future. That book takes a somewhat longer view and asks where all this will lead in the coming decades. The answers and the proposed solutions are less conventional and more controversial.

The Second Machine Age gives many examples of specific technologies like robots, AI and autonomous cars, and also lots of data showing how the economy is being transformed. The authors also make a strong argument that the way economists measure things, especially in terms of GDP, no longer does a good job of capturing what prosperity really means in the information age.

The book includes suggestions for both individuals and policy makers. Brynjolfsson and McAfee suggest that workers should learn to "race with the machines" (rather than against them), although the advice here isn't very specific beyond getting the best education you can. The authors are hopeful that innovations like massive free online courses (MOOCs) will help more people to make this transition.

There are lots of policy suggestions including reforming education to pay teachers more but also make them accountable, jump starting entrepreneurship, better job matching technologies, investing more in basic scientific research, upgrading national infrastructure, expanding skilled immigration, implementing smarter taxes, expanding the earned income tax credit (EITC), etc. In the long run, the authors also offer lukewarm support for the possibility of a guaranteed income or negative income tax.

Overall, "The Second Machine Age" does a good job of identifying and explaining the forces that will be critical to the economy and job market of future. The book has a basically optimistic tone, but I think a lot of the trends it points out are going to be really bad news for a lot of people.
50 internautes sur 54 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 A cogent discussion of where we are and where we're headed 27 janvier 2014
Par Steven Grimm - Publié sur
Format:Format Kindle|Achat vérifié
This covers a lot of the same ground as books such as "The Lights in the Tunnel" but in a more pop-academic style: the prose is all very accessible but the information is extensively footnoted and attributed, and there are numerous references to the work of other academics, mostly but not exclusively economists. For anyone who wonders why we're seeing record-high income inequality and jobless recoveries from recessions, this book will clear up a lot of mysteries.

As someone in the technology field myself, I found little to disagree with in the book's treatment of recent and upcoming technological advances, which occupies the first several chapters; the authors have done their homework and have visited enough research labs and company R&D departments to have a very realistic picture of what's just over the horizon. There'll be nothing earth-shattering here for readers who follow technology trends or even who read WIRED magazine, but the book looks at all these things through a somewhat different lens (its impact on human work) than the tech press usually does, and I didn't find myself skimming even when they were covering developments with which I'm already very familiar.

For me, the best stretch of the book was chapters 7 through 11, when the focus moves to the effects of recent technological advances on the economy and on the study of economics itself. The authors build a compelling case that income inequality is much more a consequence of the move to a digital economy than of any particular government policy. I found their take on globalization especially interesting: they view it as a big contributor to the rise in income of the world's top earners, but not for the reasons people usually think. I already tended toward this view, but now I'm further convinced that some of the changes we've seen in wealth distribution are primarily due to deep structural changes in the way the world works and won't be undone by tax policy.

I found the book less convincing in its final chapters, where the authors suggest steps that can be taken to avert widespread unemployment and social disorder. Their short-term prescriptions are sensible enough (basically: take steps to encourage general economic growth) but, as the authors themselves point out, these won't address the underlying problem, identified by Keynes among others, of technological change outpacing the ability of large segments of the workforce to retrain for new jobs. They offer a few examples of systems that make it easier to find occasional part-time work and suggest that these could be expanded in the future, but as far as I can tell their vision would still leave people mostly idle. They are optimistic about the ability of people to continue finding work but I didn't feel it was justified by the picture their text painted.

Still, this is about the best treatment I've found of the question of how technology is likely to affect work over the next couple decades. Highly recommended.
40 internautes sur 45 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
2.0 étoiles sur 5 Disappointing -- retelling the race against the machine. 20 février 2014
Par Mark P. McDonald - Publié sur
Format:Format Kindle|Achat vérifié
Brynjolfsson is one of the most forward and provocative thinkers out there about technology and its impact on economics. The book he co-authored with Andy McAfee "Race Against the Machine" is one of the best books I have read in a long time. This book repeats much of what is in Race against the Machine, giving it a more positive spin. If you have read the first book, there really is no reason to read this one. The Second Machine Age rewords much of Brynjolfsson's TED talk of the a similar name. The TED Talk is highly recommended and provides a good overview of what you will find in this book.

Big ideas, like those Brynjolfsson talks about are hard to come by and that is what makes them valuable. I had hoped that this book developed these ideas further, rather than largely restating them. That said if you have never read "Race" this book is just as good as the other.
18 internautes sur 21 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
2.0 étoiles sur 5 Another book that should have been an article in The Atlantic 26 mars 2014
Par Jackal - Publié sur
Format:Relié|Achat vérifié
The book's idea is that the the computer/network/digital has now reached a maturity so we will see big changes in the future. They compare with the steam engine (but they should really have compared with electricity if they knew their history). There is a delay until we get big productivity improvement so we can soon expect higher productivity growth due to the Internet. I do not have any quarrels with this basic idea. I agree with the authors that the future is quite bright. Still, I wonder why anyone would agree with the authors mainly by providing a bunch of tech-friendly examples. It is a pretty poor way to forecast the future.

The book goes from being average to bad when it comes to assessing the consequences. The digital future will have many consequences for the world in terms of economy, politics and culture. These authors are not suited to provide that perspective, even though they try. The authors have a lot to say about the US and nothing to say about the world. We get to learn things that American school need to get better and that America needs to welcome talent. I am left wondering if there could me MIT professors without a passport.

If you are familiar with the recent trends, like Apple's Siri, Google's driverless car, then you will not even learn from the examples. I found one example about crowd-sourced innovation very interesting. Whether you find the examples useful or not depends on whether you read about technology. If you do I don't think you will find this book valuable at all.

The material in the book would have been great for a long article in The Atlantic, but it certainly is not sufficient for a book length treatment.

The book is very easy to read and contains nothing complicated like diagrams or figures. However, you can expect the book to be full of buzzwords.

The authors like to name drop all through the book. I am paraphrasing: "Our colleague, the world famous, Graznij Huj, has said that.." I don't like argumentation by scaffolding.

Finally, I can't stop repeating what the most famous management guru (also from Boston) has written on the back of the book: "[It] truly helped me see the world of tomorrow through exponential rather than arithmetic lenses. Macro and microscopic frontiers now seem plausible, meaning that learners and teachers alike are in a perpetual mode of catching up with what is possible." I would be ashamed of writing such baloney. It is just the Boston crowd writing book blurbs to help each other endlessly recycle the same ideas. Ideas that once were novel but not in their n-th reincarnation.

This book is a solid two stars.
6 internautes sur 6 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
2.0 étoiles sur 5 yet more blind economic growth worship 26 juin 2014
Par Steve - Publié sur
Format:Relié|Achat vérifié
p. 6 ...[the] most important technological development [underlying] the sudden, sharp, and sustained jump in human progress ... was the steam engine ...

Comment: how might an analyst falsify this claim? If it's not falsifiable, it's fluff.

p. 7 the second machine age: computers and other digital advances are doing for mental power ... what the steam engine ... did for muscle power.

p. 72 [Krugman:] "A country's ability to improve its standard of living over time depends almost entirely on its ability to raise its output per worker."

Comment: standard Econ 101 blind economic growth worship. What if already realized past economic (and population) growth threatens to make Earth habitable for only the least evolved lifeforms (e.g., politicians and televangelists)?

p. 93 It is a remarkable and unmistakeable fact that, with the exception of climate change, virtually all environmental, social, and individual indicators of health have improved over time, even as human population has increased. This improvement is not a lucky coincidence; it is cause and effect. Things have gotten better because there are more people, who in total have more good ideas that improve our overall lot.

Comment: ditto

p. 106 ... the fundamentals are in place for bounty that vastly exceeds anything we've ever seen before.

Comment: do the authors live on the same planet as I do? Where are the raw materials for this bounty going to come from?

p. 133 ...the main driver [of income and asset inequality] is exponential, digital, and combinatorial change in the technology that undergirds our economic system.

Comment: economic conservatives just love this. Isn't it delightful that changes in tax policy and executive compensation norms over the last 30 years are only minor drivers of income and asset inequality?

p. 207 For now the best way to tackle our labor force challenges is to grow the economy.

Comment: more economic growth worship - hooray! Damn the torpedoes - full speed ahead!

p. 235 It seems that all around the world, people want to escape the evils of boredom, vice, and need and instead find mastery, autonomy, and purpose by working.

Comment: too bad the authors forgot to ask workers at Walmart how much mastery, autonomy, and purpose they obtain through their work.

p. 257 But in the long run, the real questions will go beyond economic growth. As more and more work is done by machines, people can spend more time on other activities. Not just leisure and amusments, but also the deeper satisfactions that come from invention and exploration, from creativity and building, and from love, friendship, and community.

Comment: what happened to the blessings of work? The authors do not seem to have completed their thinking on this topic.

p. 257 Technology is not destiny. We shape our destiny.

Comment: the authors do not seem to understand the risk posed by releasing a superhuman intelligence into the environment. What should we do if such an intelligence decides that Earth would be much better off with only 1% of its current human population, and implements a humane human population reduction program? We will have lost control of our destiny, possibly permanently.
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