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You Can Be a Stock Market Genius: Uncover the Secret Hiding Places of Stock Market P (English Edition) Format Kindle

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Longueur : 286 pages Word Wise: Activé Langue : Anglais

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Descriptions du produit


Chapter 1
Follow the Yellow Brick Road --
Then Hang a Right

It doesn't make sense that a book can teach you how to make a fortune in the stock market. After all, what chance do you have for success when you're up against an army of billion-dollar portfolio managers or a horde of freshly trained MBAs? A contest between you, the proud owner of a $24 "how to" book, and these guys hardly seems fair.
The truth is, it isn't fair. The well-heeled Wall Street money managers and the hotshot MBA's don't have a chance against you and this book. No, you won't find any magic formula in chapter 8, and this isn't a sequel to How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying, but if you're willing to invest a reasonable amount of time and effort, stock market profits, and even a fortune, await.
Okay: What's the catch? If it's so easy, why can't the MBAs and the pros beat your pants off? Clearly, they put in their share of time and effort, find while they may not all be rocket scientists, there aren't many village idiots among them either.
As strange as it may seem, there is no catch. The answer to this apparent paradox -- why you potentially have the power to beat the pants off the so-called market "experts" -- lies in a study of academic thinking, the inner workings of Wall Street, and the weekend habits of my in-laws.
We start with some good news about your education: simply put, if your goal is to beat the market, an MBA or a Ph.D. from a top business school will be of virtually no help. Well, it's good news, that is, if you haven't yet squandered tons of time and money at a business school in the single-minded quest for stock market success. In fact, the basic premise of most academic theory is this: It is not possible to beat the market consistently other than by luck.
This theory, usually referred to as the efficient-market or "random-walk" theory, suggests that thousands of investors and analysts take in all the publicly available information on a particular company, and through their decisions to buy and sell that company's stock establish the "correct" trading price. In effect, since stocks are more or less efficiently priced (and therefore, you can't consistently find bargain-priced stocks), it is not possible to outperform the market averages over long periods of time. Although exceptions (e.g., the January effect, small size effects and low price/earnings strategies) are covered briefly by the academics, most of these "market-beating" strategies are dismissed as trivial, transient, or difficult to achieve after factoring in taxes and transaction costs.
Since beating the market is out of the question, finance professors spend a lot of time teaching things like quadratic parametric programming -- which, loosely translates to how to pick diversified stock portfolios in three-dimensional space. In other words, if you muddle through complex mathematical formulas and throw in a little calculus and statistical theory along the way, you stand a pretty good chance of matching the performance of the popular market averages. Wow! While there are plenty of other bells and whistles, the message is clear: You can't beat the market, so don't even try. Thousands of MBA's and Ph.D.'s have paid good money for this lousy advice.
There are two reasons not to accept the basic teachings of the professors. First, there are some fundamental flaws in the assumptions and methodology used by the academics -- flaws we'll look at briefly later on, but which are not the central focus of this book. Second, and more important, even if the professors are generally correct and the market for stocks is more or less efficient, their studies and conclusions do not apply to you.
Obviously, most of Wall Street must also ignore the academics because the whole concept of getting paid for your investment advice, whether through commissions or investment advisory fees, doesn't square too well with the idea that the advice really isn't worth anything. Unfortunately for the professionals, the facts would seem to support the conclusions of the academics. If academic theory held true, you would expect the long-term record of pension and mutual-fund managers to equal the performance of the market averages reduced by the amount of the advisory fee. In a slight deviation from efficient-market theory, the professionals actually do approximately 1 percent worse per year than the relevant market averages, even before deducting their management fees. Does the theory that markets are "more or less" efficient explain this disappointing performance on the part of professionals, or are there other factors at work that lead to these lackluster results?
The Professional's Challenge
I spoke with a professional whom I consider one of the best in the business, a friend I'll call Bob (even though his real name is Rich). Bob is in charge of $12 billion of U.S. equity funds at a major investment firm. For some perspective, if you went to the racetrack and placed a bet with $100 bills, $12 billion would stack twenty World Trade Centers high (needless to say, a bet that would almost certainly kill the odds on your horse). According to Bob, the bottom line and the measure of his success is this: How does the return on his portfolio stack up against the return of the Standard & Poor's 500 average? In fact, Bob's record is phenomenal: over the past ten years his average annual return has exceeded the return of the S&P 500 by between 2 and 3 percent.
At first blush, the word "phenomenal" and an increased annual yield of 2 or 3 percent seem somewhat incongruous. Though it is true that after twenty years of compounding even 2 percent extra per year creates a 50 percent larger nest egg, this is not why Bob's returns are phenomenal. Bob's performance is impressive because in the world of billion-dollar portfolios, this level of excess return is incredibly hard to come by on a consistent basis. Some quick calculations help expose the limitations imposed on Bob by the sheer size of his portfolio. Imagine the dollar investment in each stock position when Bob sets out to divvy up $12 billion. To create a 50-stock portfolio, the average investment in each individual stock would have to be approximately $240 million; for 100 stocks, $120 million.
There are approximately 9,000 stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange, and the NASDAQ over-the-counter market combined. Of this number, about 800 stocks have a market capitalization over $2.5 billion and approximately 1,500 have market values over $1 billion. If we assume Bob does not care to own more than 10 percent of any company's outstanding shares (for legal and liquidity reasons), it's likely that the minimum number of different stocks Bob will end up with in his portfolio will fall somewhere between 50 and 100. If he chooses to expand the universe from which he chooses potential purchase candidates to those companies with market capitalizations below $1 billion, perhaps to take advantage of some lesser followed and possibly undiscovered bargain stocks, his minimum number could easily expand to over 200 different stocks.
Intuitively, you would probably agree that there is an advantage to holding a diversified portfolio so that one or two unfortunate (read "bonehead") stock picks do not unduly impair your confidence and pocketbook. On the other hand, is the correct number of different stocks to own in a "properly" diversified portfolio 50, 100, or even 200?
It turns out that diversification addresses only a portion (and not the major portion) of the overall risk of investing in the stock market. Even if you took the precaution of owning 9,000 stocks, you would still be at risk for the up and down movement of the entire market. This risk, known as market risk, would not have been eliminated by your "perfect" diversification.
While simply buying more stocks can't help you avoid market risk, it can help you avoid another kind of risk -- "nonmarket risk." Nonmarket risk is the portion of a stock's risk that is not related to the stock market's overall movements. This type of risk can arise when a company's factory burns down or when a new product doesn't sell as well as expected. By not placing all your eggs in a buggy-whip, breast-implant, pet-rock, or huckapoo-sweater company, you can diversify away that portion of your risk that comes from the misfortunes of any individual company.
Statistics say that owning just two stocks eliminates 46 percent of the nonmarket risk of owning just one stock. This type of risk is supposedly reduced by 72 percent with a four-stock portfolio, by 81 percent with eight stocks, 93 percent with 16 stocks, 96 percent with 32 stocks, and 99 percent with 500 stocks. Without quibbling over the accuracy of these particular statistics, two things should be remembered:
1. After purchasing six or eight stocks in different industries, the benefit of adding even more stocks to your portfolio in an effort to decrease risk is small, and
2. Overall market risk will not be eliminated merely by adding more stocks to your portfolio.
From a practical standpoint, when Bob chooses his favorite stocks and is on pick number twenty, thirty, or eighty, he is pursuing a strategy imposed on him by the dollar size of his portfolio, legal issues, and fiduciary considerations, not because he feels his last picks are as good as his first or because he needs to own all those stocks for optimum portfolio diversification.
In short, poor Bob has to come up with scores of great stock ideas, choose from a limited universe of the most widely followed stocks, buy and sell large amounts of individual stocks without affecting their share prices, and perform in a fish bowl where his returns are judged quarterly and even monthly.
Luckily, you don't.
The Secret To Your Fortune
Since Bob clearly has his hands full, where can an investor turn for insight into making a fortune in the stock market? For better or worse, all roads appear to leave us at the doorstep of my in-laws. (Don't worry, I said min...

Revue de presse

The Wall Street Journal Joel Greenblatt can indeed teach you about the market and how fortunes can be made there.

Andrew Tobias bestselling author of The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need I hope few investors will read this smart, sophisticated, fun book. I don't want competition profiting from its very real insights.

Alan C. "Ace" Greenburg Chairman of the Board, Bear Stearns Joel is my kind of guy -- very, very long on common sense. This book is great!

Détails sur le produit

  • Format : Format Kindle
  • Taille du fichier : 665 KB
  • Nombre de pages de l'édition imprimée : 286 pages
  • Editeur : Touchstone; Édition : 1st Fireside Ed (2 novembre 2010)
  • Vendu par : Amazon Media EU S.à r.l.
  • Langue : Anglais
  • ASIN: B0043RSJB8
  • Synthèse vocale : Non activée
  • X-Ray :
  • Word Wise: Activé
  • Composition améliorée: Non activé
  • Moyenne des commentaires client : 3.0 étoiles sur 5 1 commentaire client
  • Classement des meilleures ventes d'Amazon: n°90.207 dans la Boutique Kindle (Voir le Top 100 dans la Boutique Kindle)
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Pas mal, mais a un peu vieilli...
Intéressera essentiellement les analystes et investisseurs fondamentaux, les autres passeront leur chemin !
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Commentaires client les plus utiles sur (beta) HASH(0x903ee39c) étoiles sur 5 153 commentaires
220 internautes sur 227 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
HASH(0x905b31a4) étoiles sur 5 Required reading for intermediate to advanced investors. 4 octobre 2001
Par Amazon Customer - Publié sur
Format: Broché Achat vérifié
Okay, so the title of the book leaves something to be desired, but that is the ONLY part of this book that falls short. Joel Greenblatt has written an excellent book on profiting from special situations. That's fortunate for the rest of us, since so far as I can tell, this is the ONLY book that provides an overview of event-driven investing. Note that I said "overview"--it's by no means definitive, nor does it claim to be. Certainly more rigorous treatments of risk arbitrage exist. However, this is the only book I'm aware of that is dedicated to explaining merger securities, spinoffs, recapitalizations, bankruptcy and yes, risk arbitrage.
The book's format is well thought out: each chapter explains the how and why of investing in one particular corporate event, and then utilizes case studies to ram the point home. The case studies are interesting, reading at times like a novel. The tone is lighthearted and endearing throughout, and the frequent jokes, although usually kitschy, hit the mark nonetheless. (One gem: "There are three types of people in the world--those who can count, and those who can't.")
This book is not for everyone, however. Beginners should first read Peter Lynch, Ben Graham, and Phillip Fisher before tackling this one. Greenblatt assumes a reasonable degree of comfort with financial statements and value investing strategies on the part of the reader. The use of LEAPS and options in special situations is covered, but should be avoided by all save for the most advanced investors (as per the author's advice). Also, professionals working in the field of event-driven investments would probably find little they did not already know. That being said, the book reads quickly, so a pro would be little disadvantaged for reading it.
Finally, it's nice to know that the author can walk the walk as well as talk the talk. Greenblatt publishes his firm's audited returns over a ten-year period at the end of the book, and they are out of this world. We're talking an average annual return of 50% for ten years. This book is not a case of "Those who can, do; those who can't, teach." Greenblatt can, and he does.
Highly recommended.
60 internautes sur 63 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
HASH(0x906ccf60) étoiles sur 5 Practical Advice for Sophisticated Special Situations Investing 17 janvier 2006
Par Donald Mitchell - Publié sur
Format: Broché
This book is for those who cannot resist the idea of wanting to outperform the market averages. For most people, that's dumb idea . . . and indexed mutual funds would be a better choice.

But if you are willing to roll up your sleeves, put on your green eyeshade and look at things differently, Mr. Greenblatt's approach is a very valid one.

If you read only one of Mr. Greenblatt's books about investing (the other one is The Little Book That Beats the Market), read this one. You'll make more money with this one.

You can be a Stock Market Genius has the simplest explanation for special situations investing involving unusual securities that I have seen for the lay person.

For most people, this book will be a lot to chew on. I suggest that you start by simply trying to understand and apply one idea in the book . . . such as finding under priced small spin-off stocks. After you get the handle on that one, go on to another approach that interests you.

I have worked for over three decades helping companies design these new securities that fascinate Mr. Greenblatt so much. From that experience, I'm constantly amazed at how stupidly most corporate finance departments and investment banks pursue these new structures. I suspect that the answer is that the heavy brainpower is saved for more profitable work like M&A.

As a result, you will almost always find a great investment opportunity if you look at unusual securities. I encourage you to begin by spending a half hour getting the background on any unusual transaction you read about.

You can also improve on this book by doing more precise measurements of securities values (if you have the background to do that), but for many severely undervalued securities Mr. Greenblatt's approach of taking guesses about what a reasonable value is will work just fine.

Although the examples are older, these kinds of opportunities still abound in most categories he discusses (stub stocks are the exception). Mr. Greenblatt has a real talent for putting his cases together to make them easier to understand.

Have a ball!
79 internautes sur 85 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
HASH(0x90860540) étoiles sur 5 Terrific Read Despite the Schleppy Title 5 mai 2000
Par S. Schneider - Publié sur
Format: Broché
This is an amazingly generous roadmap to lesser-known corners of the securities market. When I first picked it up about 2 years ago, I was terribly disappointed because all the strategies Greenblatt describes require a fair amount of WORK and careful thought --and it was my impression that "Stock Market Genius" entailed effortless wizardry! But the work is contagious and engaging (like digging for buried treasure, as aptly described by Joel Greenblatt).
Despite the book's schleppy and seemingly unrealistic title, Greenblatt's descriptions are wonderfully realistic and honest. In particular, although I've looked for other resources on spinoff investment strategies, everything you really need to know is in this book. The author's style is flippant but endearing, and the reader will get more than his/her money's worth from the ideas described in this book.
81 internautes sur 96 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
HASH(0x9106f258) étoiles sur 5 Far better than "The Little Book that Beats the Market" 17 janvier 2006
Par Abacus - Publié sur
Format: Broché
In this older book, Greenblatt reviews what diligent active investing is all about: uncovering economic value in Byzantine places where information is not analyzed so efficiently by the market. No one is going to generate excess returns trading Fortune 500 stocks in stable situations. But, as Greenblatt recommends, if you study special situations in arcane details you may have a better chance of extracting above market returns.

His advice is commendable, but it is not for the average investor. His approach assumes an astute knowledge of investment and corporate finance rarely found outside the institutional investment community. After all, how many friends do you know have made money using such a sophisticated and labor-intensive approach? I have personally tried a couple of decades ago armed with an MBA and years in corporate credit analysis and failed.

Another obstacle is that since the book was written investors have pored billions in hedge funds who chase the same types of market inefficiencies. Therefore, the market for all these special situations (risk arbitrage, restructuring, liquidations, etc...) has become more efficient.

If you are just a regular investor, sound investing boils down to evaluating one's risk tolerance, diversifying your assets accordingly, and investing them efficiently. If you want to know more about this I strongly recommend Burton Malkiels' "The Random Walk Guide to Investing."
21 internautes sur 23 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
HASH(0x905a893c) étoiles sur 5 Awful title, Excellent book 10 janvier 2008
Par Andrew Barrett - Publié sur
Format: Broché
1999 Fireside reissue of 1st edition (1997), 299 pages (of which 261 pages form the main body of the book).

Despite the awful title, I really enjoyed `You can be a Stock Market Genius'. Greenblatt laces his (excellent) content with plenty of jokes, which I always think of as a somewhat risky approach: some readers who would otherwise appreciate the content will not like the delivery.

By the time of publication, Greenblatt's investment firm had already achieved 50% compound annual growth for 10 years, so could write his book however he pleased. I like it when people don't need to write books for financial reasons - you get a better look at the author.

Greenblatt's book reminds me strongly of Mohnish Pabrai's `The Dhandho Investor', which I read a few months ago. I don't think one should be particularly surprised, as they both belong in that tiny group of investors who have not just beaten the stock market, but have absolutely smashed it. The following summary points for `You can be a Stock Market Genius' could be used for either book:

1. Concentrate your efforts on areas where bargains are likely to occur ("If you preselect investment areas that put you ahead of the game even before you start ... the most important work is already done.")
2. Limit downside risk ("If you don't lose money, most of the remaining alternatives are good ones.")
3. Load up on only a few best ideas ("...don't screw up a perfectly good stock-market strategy by diversifying your way into mediocre returns.")

The second point, which is the same as the concept of `margin of safety,' works because it - unlike the world of analyst earnings forecasts - acknowledges the severe uncertainty that is reality. I particularly enjoyed Nassim Taleb's `The Black Swan', partly because the world he reveals ties in so well with the `value' approach to investing. Both good and bad large, unpredictable events occur more frequently than we expect. If you organise your investing (and your life) so that you are protected from some of the negative shocks, but left exposed to the positive ones, this is likely to serve you well.

Pabrai focuses on distressed situations (what he calls `high uncertainty, low risk') and Greenblatt likes special situations (spin-offs, merger securities, etc). But the theme is the same: in order to get really good results you've got to be looking in areas other people are not.

Greenblatt is willing to concentrate more than Pabrai, who simply limits his positions to a maximum 10%, to protect himself against error. But these are differences in style rather than substance. They both look for promising situations/ideas and only then do the necessary work. Both profess to avoid use of Excel spreadsheets (In 2006 Greenblatt was asked if he used spreadsheets: "I really don't know how to build spreadsheet models. But the good news is that you don't need spreadsheets to make money.") In other words, they keep it simple.

Before he gets into the specifics of special situation investing, Greenblatt spends a chapter going over `some basics'. This short section of the book is either an excellent primer or reminder of the general requirements of a successful investment strategy - and I commend it to you without reservation.

His book also contains some excellent advice about selling. It is something I have been thinking about a lot recently after reading Pabrai's `The Dhandho Investor' and Katsenelson's `Active Value Investing' - both of which make a strong case for the need to learn to sell in order to get significantly above market returns. The problem with this advice is that selling well is somewhere between extremely difficult and impossible (as various super investors, such as Greenblatt, Marty Whitman, Munger, etc. have said).

Greenblatt's advice is very simple:

"The bargain created or unmasked by the special corporate event - that's what draws me in. The quality and nature of the business - that's what usually determines how long I stay. So trade the bad ones, invest in the good ones."

(You may note that this is essentially the same as Buffett's counsel, who wrote: "when we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favourite holding period is forever.")

I was struck by how often Greenblatt rammed home the importance of incentives throughout his book:

"Insider participation is one of the key areas to look for when picking and choosing between spinoffs - for me, the most important area."

His understanding of the critical importance of incentives is very wise and is surely one of the key reasons for his outstanding success (although I wonder if he still holds stock options in such high regard, now it is clearer that the lack of downside risk can encourage excessively risky behaviour?). Charlie Munger said this about incentives in `The Psychology of Human Misjudgement':

"...almost everyone thinks he fully recognizes how important incentives and disincentives are in changing cognition and behaviour. But this is not often so. I think I've been in the top five percent of my age cohort almost all my adult life in understanding the power of incentives, and yet I've always underestimated that power. Never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes a little further my appreciation of incentive super-power."

It's also one of the reasons why I like Karen Pryor's book, `Don't Shoot the Dog,' so much. Munger pointed out in the same talk I quoted him from above, that what economists call `incentives' is the same as what psychologists call `reinforcement'. Reading an excellent book on training using positive reinforcement (like Pryor's) is thus extremely useful in improving your understanding and critically, practice of making use of incentives.

So long as you're not the type who objects to a light-hearted approach, you're likely to find Greenblatt's book a lot better than the title suggests. Highly recommended.
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