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Cold, Hungry and in the Dark: Exploding the Natural Gas Supply Myth (Anglais) Broché – 30 mai 2013

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4,2 étoiles sur 5 29 commentaires provenant des USA

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Amazon.com: 4.2 étoiles sur 5 29 commentaires
17 internautes sur 17 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 Solid Critique of "100-Year Supply"; Weak Case for Shortage 17 septembre 2013
Par Jamie M. Schmidt - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format: Broché Achat vérifié
Mr. Powers, as has been noted by other viewers, does an excellent job providing data and sources attacking the "100-year supply" myth. Throughout the book, Mr. Powers presented compelling evidence that the natural gas supply has been materially overstated by industry and other vested interests. The highlight of the book are the two sections in which Mr. Powers reviews US production data shale play by shale play - an analysis I have been unable to find anywhere else - and another section in which Mr. Powers shines a light on the holes in the Energy Information Agency's natural gas reserves data. These are among the strongest elements of the book, and I believe the pieces most appreciated by other readers.

That said, the other half of the book is spent on making the case that the U.S. will face a natural gas shortage. The case in this half of the book is weak and not as well supported as the other. After reading this portion of the book, I wasn't necessarily opposed to the idea that the US could face a shortage of natural gas, but I was far from convinced. Some of Mr. Powers arguments in this portion are lacking. For instance, Mr. Powers cites the decline in production in the majority of shale plays from 2010-to-date as evidence that the plays have already "peaked". While I don't necessarily disagree with his conclusion, the argument itself is wanting. My immediate reaction was to question if the producers that weren't forced to drill due to lease holdings and/or interest payments were shutting in wells and refraining from drilling in an attempt to hold out for higher natural gas prices. Mr. Powers never addresses this obvious question. A similar case arises when Mr. Powers conclusively indicates that U.S. demand for natural gas will increase because manufacturing is coming back to the U.S. Again, while I do not necessarily disagree with the assumption, there is never an incredibly strong and conclusive case. Several such quick assumptions are made to support the conclusion that the U.S. faces a gas shortage. While I'm not in disagreement with Mr. Powers, I'm far from convinced of his case.

I award the book four stars. The case against the EIA and the depth of the play-by-play production data are truly class-act and compelling. I knock a star off for the weak and sometimes wanting case for an imminent U.S. gas shortage.
3 internautes sur 3 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Shale gas peaking in 7 years and not lasting for 100 years 30 décembre 2013
Par Amazon Customer - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format: Format Kindle Achat vérifié
I just finished reading the book entitled Cold, Hungry, and in the Dark by Bill Powers. He is pretty knowledgeable in Oil and Gas and he is saying with documentation that the idea of natural gas from shale fracking for 100 years in the US is all hype. He sites Chesapeake strategy. Drill a couple of wells in center of good geologic formation and find gas. Then buy a lot of leases around formation for X and hype your discovery claiming 40 years of gas from your two wells extrapolating to all leases. Go on TV with hype. Wall Street joins in on hype. Sell perimeter leases at 5X. This was 2007. In 2012, no gas in perimeter leases and buyers take a tax write off. Chesapeake gas wells are depleting faster than expected. The gas wells are not economical costing more than the revenues from the gas produced. Chesapeake makes money off hyped lease sales. Bill Powers expects another oil and gas surprise in 2015 with declining oil and natural gas supply.
2 internautes sur 2 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Warning: Don't buy the Kindle edition; otherwise this book is an important addition to your library 7 février 2014
Par Harry Siegel - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format: Format Kindle Achat vérifié
Tables, Graphs, Maps and images are essential to the narrative of this important thoroughly researched work. Unfortunately the horrible quality of the embedded graphics in the Kindle addition of this book are mostly unreadable due to their low resolution (Note: I am reading this book on my new PaperWhite Kindle but I believe this is a problem with the raw eBook file so it would probably apply to all Kindle eBook readers). Most of the many important supporting graphics are useless due to their horrible quality AND they are ESSENTIAL to this important thoroughly researched work. It is horribly frustrating.

To make the eBook files small Amazon (or the book's editors) have chosen to to use very very low resolution images ( the ENTIRE eBook file is only the size of one very low quality image on my iPhone, but this eBook is filled with dozens of important graphs and tables). The PaperWhite Kindle cannot zoom or pan the graphics so most of the important graphics are unreadable and therefore useless.
Otherwise this book is an essential read for anyone interested in understanding what the future probably holds for fossil fuel production. It is well researched and documented (no pun intended).
1 internautes sur 1 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 Clear eyed understanding of gas, bit over optimistic about unreliables 15 novembre 2013
Par Rod Adams - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format: Format Kindle Achat vérifié
Bill Powers knows the gas industry and has clearly documented its coming deliver ability challenge. He recognizes that a lot of the conventional wisdom about a new era in abundant gas comes from a dedicated snake oil sales effort by companies like Chesapeake Energy, which demonstrated high growth in selected sweet spots and later made bank by selling land at a 5 to 10 times mark up. Those land sales were enabled by exaggerating the future prospects.

What Powers has missed, however, is similar hype infecting the renewable (unreliables) energy business. The windiest and sunniest locations are built first, but that does not mean that their success is extensible to later developments. Even the early successes and trends were enabled by massive injections of direct subsidies from taxpayers, like the $90 billion injected as part of the American Recovery Act. Those injections are not going to continue; they are unsustainable in a growing industry.
1 internautes sur 1 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Best energy book since "The Prize" 27 janvier 2014
Par Dr. Don - Publié sur Amazon.com
Format: Broché Achat vérifié
Bill Powers hits a home run with Cold Hungry And In The Dark. Not since Matt Simmons have we seen this type of hard hitting, data centric challenge of consensus. The natural gas myth is just the first of many widely held present day myths that the public now believes and accepts as fact. This book was a thrill for me to read, and gives the reader an edge as one looks for a thematic approach to winning in investing. Matt Simmons, who I considered a modern day energy prophet, achieved his vision through hard work and through going deeper with the factual data available. Bill Powers, in the same vein, has written the first great energy book since Matt's untimely death and I give it my highest recommendation.
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