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The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall (English Edition) par [Bremmer, Ian]
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Longueur : 336 pages Word Wise: Activé Composition améliorée: Activé
Page Flip: Activé Langue : Anglais

Description du produit

Revue de presse

'A new catchphrase is buzzing its way around the political salons of Washington and New York. Move over, "tipping point". The "J curve" is an explanation for the way the world works that is so simple that you can draw it on the back of a paper napkin.' Daily Telegraph
'The world has seemed a riskier place of late. Mr Bremmer's analyses of China, Russia and Iran, in particular...convincingly make the case that it is going to get riskier.' The Economist
'The J Curve provides both policymakers and business strategists with an innovative set of conceptual tools for understanding political risk in rapidly changing societies.' Francis Fukuyama, author of The End of History and The Last Man
'Ian Bremmer has come up with a smart, fresh way to think about how countries develop. His J-curve gets at the heart of a dynamic of change affecting large swathes of the world. A book well worth reading.' Fareed Zakaria, author of The Future of Freedom

Présentation de l'éditeur

Locate nations on the J Curve -- left for authoritarian, right for democratic. Then figure out how to force those on the left to open their societies, rather than encouraging them to shut them tighter by further isolating them. The West's isolation of Kim Jong-il's North Korea gives him the cover he needs to extend his brutal regime (the mistake the U.S. made for a long time with Saddam Hussein and Castro); in Saudi Arabia, western governments should encourage manageable change before the country breaks apart; they should help strengthen China's economy so it can further liberalize; they must encourage Israel to decide what kind of country it will be.

Filled with imaginative and surprising examples of how to correct outworn political ideas, The J Curve points the way for western governments to lead the way to a realistic political balance and a healthier economic future.

Détails sur le produit

  • Format : Format Kindle
  • Taille du fichier : 990 KB
  • Nombre de pages de l'édition imprimée : 336 pages
  • Pagination - ISBN de l'édition imprimée de référence : 0743274717
  • Editeur : Simon & Schuster (15 septembre 2006)
  • Vendu par : Amazon Media EU S.à r.l.
  • Langue : Anglais
  • ASIN: B000JMKS7E
  • Synthèse vocale : Activée
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Commentaires client les plus utiles sur (beta) 3.8 étoiles sur 5 46 commentaires
5.0 étoiles sur 5 Great Book 18 janvier 2016
Par H'Oscar - Publié sur
Format: Relié Achat vérifié
I first bought this book in 2007 or 2008, used it extensively as a reference, and market it up sufficiently that this is now my third copy (each other copy has been borrowed...). While some of Ian Bremmer's trends are not universal, and we have identified multiple exceptions, the general concept is pretty solid. The book is an easy read with easily comprehended examples and storylines. This is a great book with a different perspective on transitions than are typically shared. Reading the piece ensures one walks away with understanding that transitions are rarely smooth - moving from autocratic leadership to democratic or open leadership involves an intense learning curve, not only for the government but also for the population and law enforcement. If you're interested, professionally or casually, in understanding why areas struggle to remain peaceful during government transitions or policy changes, this is a good read.
4 internautes sur 4 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
3.0 étoiles sur 5 Very mediocre 10 mars 2012
Par Shawn C. - Publié sur
Achat vérifié
I had really high expectations for this book based on the summary and the reviews but finished it with a feeling that can be described as "blah." The author is definitely smart and he has a good writing style that is very accessible. However, the theory and the argument is unfocused at best. While I learned a little history, I'm still wondering really the "so what?" from the book. The author merely makes a statement about how he sees countries on a very limited framework. Even when he doesn't go into a historical tangent and even when he doesn't try to force a country into his own little graph, he fails to make the connection as to why this information is useful. Sure, he gives some broad policy suggestions which I find humorous in their simplicity, but other than that he doesn't bring his 'theory' into a logical package which can be used as a predictive tool or anything useful to well, anyone. Maybe he was pressured to turn his thoughts into the "Freakonomics of international relations" or however the review went (leaving aside the obvious criticisms from that analogy) and turned what could've been a useful idea into something that is easier to digest but lacking in substance. Again, I did learn some things and it is valuable to learn how other people see things (even if it is unfocused), but overall this book left me wanting. Would I recommend it? If you want just some interesting reading that is just easy, then sure... if you're looking to get something from it and are hoping to read a legit theory, then no, I would definitely not recommend it.
4.0 étoiles sur 5 Dated, but still very relevant 23 octobre 2014
Par Harish Nair - Publié sur
Format: Format Kindle Achat vérifié
Although the book has got a bit dated, however that should not stop one from still reading this. Ian has brought out some great trends to watch out for while analysing a country. This book is highly recommended for those who are investing in various countries.

I like the recommendation given by Ian on handling North Korea, although it is going to be difficult to carry out the same, which has also been outlined by Ian. Although Kim Jong Il is no more and his son has taken over (as was correctly identified by Ian in the Cuba case) , however, it still remains on the shorter end of the J curve , with all the insulations from external wold. However, it looks seemingly poised to slip down the curve.

Ian's analysis of Russia and China is quite spot on and gives a good insights. Most of these have been encountered by us during various interactions. China's dilemma is growing by the day. The recent events of Hong Kong is quite expected, but what is more concerning is the declining growth rates.

The write up on Saudi Arabia is also interesting, especially in light of the falling oil prices. Lets wait and watch.

I will keenly look forward to the next edition of this book from Ian
3 internautes sur 3 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
5.0 étoiles sur 5 A New Theory about the Evolution and Interaction of Nations 18 mai 2008
Par Herbert L Calhoun - Publié sur
Format: Broché Achat vérifié
This book sets forth a novel framework that attempts to answer the following questions: (1) how can we better understand the processes that erode the power of authoritarian regimes and nourish open governance? (2) How can we forecast the moment when isolated states descend into chaos? (3) How can the international community help these nations manage their transitions towards greater harmony with the rest of the world? And, finally, (4) how can U.S. policymakers create a more effective foreign policy, regarding them?

The author examines in detail twelve counties that span the spectrum of authoritarianism -- that is, countries that have varying degrees of openness to outside influences and accountability to its citizens. All, in varying degrees, are important to U.S. interests and foreign policy. The circumstances of these nations are compared and contrasted in terms of how their stability might affect U.S. interests and policy concerns. Past U.S. policy decisions towards them are also contrasted with how they could be improved by taking into account the framework and theories introduced in the book.

The theory of the J Curve is simple: Most Authoritarian states are stable because they are closed. Conversely, most thriving democracies are stable because they are open. The world itself is more stable the more it is made up of open societies, so there is a global incentive to move as many nations from a closed to an open status. However, in order to do this, requires moving through a dangerously unstable transition period. This book is about how the tools and techniques of diplomacy need to evolve in order to help bridge this J Curve transition. Thus the J Curve measures the relationship between stability abd openness. It is not a measure of democracy.

Close societies (which the author labels as left-side states) generally depend on rule by individuals, while open societies (labeled left-side states) depend on institutions. A key assumption of the book is that there is no easy way to move from one form of government to the other because the development of institutions, require time to gain both experience and legitimacy. Thus openness is not only a measure of how many institutions have evolved within a given society, but also a measure of how much those within the nation interact with each other -- as well as how much the nation itself interacts with the rest of the world. The former is indexed by the number of NGOs, the number of independent governmental entities, labor unions, and citizens groups a nation has. The latter, by the processes of international exchange, such as the number of books written in a foreign language, number of international telephone calls, the number of independent media outlets, including the internet, direct contact with foreigners, etc.

The author concludes that all states are in constant movement along the J Curve, most fluctuating within narrow bands. However those near the bottom of the curve experience wider more destabilizing swings. It is in the interest of the right-side states to assist those on the left side. Not only to increase international stability, but also to expand world markets and to combine efforts to address global problems. The author's more important prescription for dealing with left-sided states is the selective and more effective use of sanctions.

Although certainly an interesting and novel idea, I was expecting more in the policy prescriptions area. Five Stars for its creativity.
4.0 étoiles sur 5 Mathematical models of human systems 18 février 2017
Par Hasmik Ghambaryan - Publié sur
Format: Relié Achat vérifié
My expectation was to find out in this book mathematical models of human society, but I didn't.
But, anyway, it contains interesting materials for building quantitative theories of human systems, which is the main topic of my research work.
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