The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019 (Anglais) Relié – 7 janvier 2014
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Descriptions du produit
Revue de presse
—David Stockman, author of The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America
“Whether you know it or not, you are careening toward a demographic cliff. With this riveting book, esteemed economic forecaster and visionary Harry Dent has produced a must read for the next decade and beyond. It will keep you flying high while the rest of the world tumbles blindly through the turbulence.”
—George Gilder, author of Knowledge and Power, Wealth and Poverty, Microcosm, and Telecosm
“Harry Dent has drawn on his unique approach to demographic forecasting as a speaker at my events for twenty years. Over the last three decades, he has accurately predicted the 1990s surging markets, Japan’s twenty-year economic tailspin, and the U.S. market peak in 2007. His ability to help people understand, in simple terms, some of the most important forces that have helped shape our economy is invaluable. Read this book and find out what impact Harry believes demographics will have on our economy in the coming years.”
—Anthony Robbins, entrepreneur, author, and peak performance strategist
“In Endgame I outlined the global debt that makes a financial crisis inevitable. Harry Dent goes further and shows how a succession of demographic slowdowns following Japan and the United States will make the endless government stimulus plans doomed to fail. He even shows that real estate will not be the same again with rising sellers versus buyers. This is a must-read book for prospering in the debt crisis ahead.”
—John Mauldin, author of Code Red, chairman of Mauldin Economics, and editor of Thoughts from the Frontline and Outside the Box
Présentation de l'éditeur
Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-so-secret weapon: demographics. Studying the predictable things people do as they age is the ultimate tool for understanding trends. For instance, Dent can tell a client exactly when people will spend the most on potato chips. And he can explain why our economy has risen and fallen with the peak spending of generations, and why we now face a growing demographic cliff with the accelerating retirement of the Baby Boomers around the world.
Dent predicted the impact of the Boomers hitting their highest growth in spending in the 1990s, when most economists saw the United States declining. And he anticipated the decline of Japan in the 1990s, when economists were proclaiming it would overtake the U.S. economy.
But now, Dent argues, the fundamental demographics have turned against the United States and will hit more countries ahead. Inflation rises when a larger than usual block of younger people enter the workforce, and it wanes when large numbers of older people retire, downsize their homes, and cut their spending. The mass retirement of the Boomers won’t just hold back inflation; it and massive debt deleveraging will actually cause deflation—weakening the economy the most from 2014 into 2019.
Dent explores the implications of his controversial predictions. He offers advice on retirement planning, health care, real estate, education, investing, and business strategies. For instance . . .
- BUSINESSES should get lean and mean now. Identify segments that you can clearly dominate and sell off or shut down others. If you don’t, the economy will do it for you, more painfully and less profitably.
- INVESTORS should sell stocks by mid-January 2014 and look to buy them back in 2015 or later at a Dow as low as 5,800.
- FAMILIES should wait to buy real estate in areas where home prices have gone back to where the bubble started in early 2000.
- GOVERNMENTS need to stop the endless stimulus that creates more bubbles and kills the middle class, and should assist in restructuring the unprecedented debt bubble of 1983–2008.
Dent shows that if you take the time to understand demographic data, using it to your advantage isn’t all that difficult. By following his suggestions, readers will be able to find the upside to the downturn and learn how to survive and prosper during the most challenging years ahead.
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Commentaires en ligne
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Commentaires client les plus utiles sur Amazon.com (beta)
Mr. Dent does a fabulous job as a demographer and the work he shows is exceptional. He presents one of the strongest cases I've ever seen for future economic cycles...I think everyone should be armed with this evidence and decide how best to use it. I was so pleased with such a solid fundamental approach to the world's economic situation.
Now the bad:
Covers topics like sunspots' effect on the US stock market; paints inflation only in the context of dollar value vs. other currencies; delves into politics and oversimplifies (and misrepresents) the positions of various parties; discusses environmental disaster and mischaracterizes the science; He gets way too far into the weeds. He should have stuck with the primary thesis of his book.
I'm sorry if that sounds harsh, but this guy comes off as a know-it-all and quite narcissistic. I would fire the editor and publisher for letting this book go so far astray.
With the negatives said, the core of this book is fantastic and I expect the science behind his demographics is solid. I am quite glad to recommend this book and I am very happy that I purchased it. This book provides so much insight into the economic cycles and where we are headed from here for the next 20 years or so. I wish there was an abridged version that sticks to the primary topic so this book were more accessible to more people. Please buy the book, and try to overlook the negatives I've discussed above. Also, please read other books on this topic. I'm sure the author is right in the main, but I would be very careful about investing 100% of your portfolio in the manner he suggests. Still, food for thought and I'm glad I bought the book!! Enjoy.
Mr. Dent does a marvelous job developing his thesis with various graphs supporting the notion that as people age their spending habits change. But that's about as far as he goes. As others have noted, he quickly loses focus (and credibility in my opinion) when he jumps into all sorts of other "wave" theories. This starts in chapter 2 and continues for the rest of the book. I was totally captured by the first chapter (thesis) and by chapter 2 or 3 I just started skimming as he runs terribly off topic. Mr. Dent is rather like a conspiracy theorist: if you believe in one conspiracy you believe in them all. Dent believes in one wave (the demographic wave) but then goes on in nausiating fashion to show a bunch of other waves, which in my opinion are used by fanatics who are trying to sell a product rather than real science.
Dent's got an excellent theory and the data to support what will happen to spending levels in different areas over the next 30 years: why the heck is he talking about solar activity? He could have written a detailed book, almost an industry-by-chapter- about exactly what his data shows.
But he got lazy. And moreover, he loses credibility because every few pages he says something akin to: "if you go to my website I'll send you a newsletter and you can follow along as we go." Guess what? To get Mr. Dent's data in any useful form, you'll have to pay for a subscription.
Too bad: Dent could have been a really great author. He could have developed this topic and gone into a mainstream career as the go-to authority on the demographic shift that's about to occur. But in the end you end up feeling like he's more a snake-oil salesman than a true professional.
What could have been isn't!
The author forecasts for the global economy with a focus on implications for America, particularly as we scrape through the current fiscal mess with 77 million baby boomers on the verge of entering what they thought would be their golden years. Dent does not spend time opining as to the root causes as to why demographic pressures have come to bear, be they social, political, religious or other normative variations, but he makes a detailed analysis of the alarming ice berg approaching world economies. Simply put, the birth rates of the most developed economies are being outstripped by their multiplying elderly population, and this will make for a smaller work force, less productivity and catastrophic economic impact that no population is prepared to accept. Everything from anticipated amounts that young consumers spend to the age at which they expect to retire is about to get a major readjustment, like it or not. He even claims that in Japan, adult diapers are outselling infant diapers. In another, he claims research shows that 35% of young Japanese men are no longer interested in sex out of paranoia of getting their wives/girlfriends pregnant and raising a child they cannot afford. I guess condoms are super-expensive in Japan nowadays. Um, ok; we get it, Harry, but unless that statistic can be backed up somehow it's really unnecessary and reeks of hyperbole.
One of my favorite takeaways from the book: "when dyers outnumber buyers" refers to his warning that this is the first time in the developed world that a smaller generation will be following a larger generation. Not sure if this is the first time in every case, but it is generally correct. And as Dent warns throughout the book, if we expect China to save the US from certain demise, think again - they face similar constraints, monetary policy troubles and unique population constraints.
I would argue that although this is true, China and other countries with strong central control have the advantage of being able to change course dramatically much more quickly than any Western democracy. Need to get rid of a few hundred thousand government workers and re-vamp your tax code? Good luck getting that past a Congressional sub-committee in the US, but in China it's a done deal - we'll have those offices cleared out in a week. It could be argued that the Western governments will exploit any such crisis just as eagerly, but the expectations of the Western populations are far in excess of that of the average Chinese factory worker or peasant. Regardless, Dent is correct that the USA can't expect another economy to save it from itself.
He details "spending waves" taken from US census data, again interesting but not entirely surprising, especially if you are wont to read books of this genre. The pig through the python concept has long been known to marketers and social planners alike for decades, yet even with this information we're headed to the demographic cliff, economically, absent major political intervention. Alas, an elected politician won't change what the voters don't want him to change.
The one part of the book where many people will disagree is the authors characterization of inflation - he says (with apologies to Milton Friedman), that it is not about monetary policy, but it is about people. He essentially argues that inflation is defined by rising prices, and rising prices are caused by young people, who spend more than older people. I don't want to go too far down this path, but rising prices are a symptom of inflation, not inflation itself. The prices rise because the value of the currency changes, which is a direct result of monetary policy (so, in that sense, it IS about people - the people making the monetary policy. Ok, let the flame wars begin...).
While I enjoyed his research, I found him conflicting himself in some areas. For example, he details how the entitlement systems of developed nations are so out of hand that they will eventually crush the productivity and wealth potential of smaller working populations and die unfunded. Yet later in the book, he suggests that countries adopt Scandinavian-like policies of guaranteeing mothers even more ample benefits for child rearing, to include financial incentives and time off. Never mind that the Scandinavian countries already can't afford to continue to finance existing programs with their incredibly high tax rates, they are under increasing pressure from freebie-seeking third world immigrants desiring to take full, life time advantage of something never really intended to be a come one, come all give-away.
Should the US and other countries already add to their unfunded liabilities even more, it is not clear how this will improve overall economic picture, notwithstanding debates over what's fair or what ought to be. Dent does not consider the possibility that some mothers in Scandinavia would rather not have to work at all during child rearing years yet there and elsewhere many are forced to because of the onerous economic and tax situation created when governments start guaranteeing something for "free" to the population at large. Exploring this angle would drift the scope of the narrative too close to a debate on feminism and broader social policy, so Dent assiduously avoids it, leaving the contradiction in his points for the reader to resolve.
But surely, if you have gone so far as to read a review on this book, you are among those well aware of the demographic cliff in real time, and maybe you've got your own way to prepare for its imminent arrival. So why pay attention to any of this? Dent claims that with this warning and the right information, you can make a fortune. I haven't back-tested any of his prior claims, but the minute someone starts offering me predictions, I usually reach for my wallet to make sure I'm not being had. That said, I am always open for new ideas on planning for the future, even if I don't expect to be burying gold bars in my back yard.
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