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The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation Ahead (Anglais) Broché – 25 août 2015

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Revue de presse

“I bought the book, and it's amazing.  It presents some complicated data very simply.”
Rush Limbaugh

Présentation de l'éditeur

Bestselling author and financial guru Harry Dent shows why we’re facing a “great deflation” and what to do about it now

Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-sosecret weapon: demographics. He can explain why our economy has risen and fallen with the peak spending of generations, and why we now face a growing demographic cliff with the accelerating retirement of the Baby Boomers around the world.

Inflation rises when a larger than usual block of younger people enter the workforce, and it wanes when large numbers of older people retire, downsize their homes, and cut their spending. The mass retirement of the Boomers won’t just hold back inflation; it and massive debt deleveraging will actually cause deflation.

Dent explores the implications of his controversial predictions and offers advice on retirement planning, health care, real estate, education, investing, and business strategies.

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Format: Broché Achat vérifié
Harry S Dent nous livre une approche intéressante de l'évolution de l'économie appuyée par de nombreux graphiques et statistiques,
à lire impérativement !
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Commentaires client les plus utiles sur (beta) 4.0 étoiles sur 5 342 commentaires
90 internautes sur 94 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
2.0 étoiles sur 5 Excellent Thesis Terribly Supported 15 février 2014
Par Andy Marx - Publié sur
Format: Format Kindle Achat vérifié
I finally found someone who wrote a book on the economic topic that I think is largely ignored: the coming retirement of millions of baby-boomers and how that is going to effect the economic landscape for the next 30 years. Harry Dent is spot on in recognizing how this shift is likely to cause extremely large changes in spending habits for millions of individuals, and, more importantly, what that means to folks like me that are much younger (37).

Mr. Dent does a marvelous job developing his thesis with various graphs supporting the notion that as people age their spending habits change. But that's about as far as he goes. As others have noted, he quickly loses focus (and credibility in my opinion) when he jumps into all sorts of other "wave" theories. This starts in chapter 2 and continues for the rest of the book. I was totally captured by the first chapter (thesis) and by chapter 2 or 3 I just started skimming as he runs terribly off topic. Mr. Dent is rather like a conspiracy theorist: if you believe in one conspiracy you believe in them all. Dent believes in one wave (the demographic wave) but then goes on in nausiating fashion to show a bunch of other waves, which in my opinion are used by fanatics who are trying to sell a product rather than real science.

Dent's got an excellent theory and the data to support what will happen to spending levels in different areas over the next 30 years: why the heck is he talking about solar activity? He could have written a detailed book, almost an industry-by-chapter- about exactly what his data shows.

But he got lazy. And moreover, he loses credibility because every few pages he says something akin to: "if you go to my website I'll send you a newsletter and you can follow along as we go." Guess what? To get Mr. Dent's data in any useful form, you'll have to pay for a subscription.

Too bad: Dent could have been a really great author. He could have developed this topic and gone into a mainstream career as the go-to authority on the demographic shift that's about to occur. But in the end you end up feeling like he's more a snake-oil salesman than a true professional.

What could have been isn't!
257 internautes sur 272 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 A significant book. Must read. Fire editor and publisher. 12 janvier 2014
Par Nevada - Publié sur
Format: Format Kindle
This is a very significant book and I would recommend that everyone read it. Unfortunately, in my opinion, the author digresses significantly and often into topics for which he demonstrates very little expertise. I was frustrated and found myself skimming about 40 percent of this book as trash. The other 60 percent was very important and worth it at twice the price. Definitely a recommend, but with the qualification that you be patient and be willing to skip through portions of the book.

Mr. Dent does a fabulous job as a demographer and the work he shows is exceptional. He presents one of the strongest cases I've ever seen for future economic cycles...I think everyone should be armed with this evidence and decide how best to use it. I was so pleased with such a solid fundamental approach to the world's economic situation.

Now the bad:
Covers topics like sunspots' effect on the US stock market; paints inflation only in the context of dollar value vs. other currencies; delves into politics and oversimplifies (and misrepresents) the positions of various parties; discusses environmental disaster and mischaracterizes the science; He gets way too far into the weeds. He should have stuck with the primary thesis of his book.

I'm sorry if that sounds harsh, but this guy comes off as a know-it-all and quite narcissistic. I would fire the editor and publisher for letting this book go so far astray.

With the negatives said, the core of this book is fantastic and I expect the science behind his demographics is solid. I am quite glad to recommend this book and I am very happy that I purchased it. This book provides so much insight into the economic cycles and where we are headed from here for the next 20 years or so. I wish there was an abridged version that sticks to the primary topic so this book were more accessible to more people. Please buy the book, and try to overlook the negatives I've discussed above. Also, please read other books on this topic. I'm sure the author is right in the main, but I would be very careful about investing 100% of your portfolio in the manner he suggests. Still, food for thought and I'm glad I bought the book!! Enjoy.
5 internautes sur 5 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
3.0 étoiles sur 5 Whats the point of all research if wrong! 17 juin 2016
Par virji1988 - Publié sur
Format: Broché Achat vérifié
Harry is dent is wrong as off now..
2016 is great for Gold and bad for dollar.
If I listened to him I would not have gained 300% on my mining stocks, 20% in metals, and infact lost 6% in the dollar value.
Although he did alot of thinking - whats the point if wrong
6 internautes sur 6 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
2.0 étoiles sur 5 Take it with a grain of salt 16 mars 2014
Par HWR&R - Publié sur
Format: Format Kindle Achat vérifié
Up until the Dent started making a case for a sun-spots and market troughs, I thought he was doing pretty well. But at that point I realized that he made graphs to meet his predictions and so far as I could discern, did not offer any concrete statistical evidence, such as coefficient of correlation. Also, his predictions were specific but with such wide parameters, such as... If the economy doesn't tank during early 2014, it will by 2019 or 2020. Which begs the question, when he claims to have predicted many events in the past, was that a 6-10 year window as well.
2 internautes sur 2 ont trouvé ce commentaire utile 
4.0 étoiles sur 5 YOU'VE BEEN WARNED AMERICA !!! 23 février 2014
Par REALOLDGUY - Publié sur
Format: Relié Achat vérifié
This book makes a lot more sense to me because Harry spent the first two chapters outlining the reasons for the conclusions. Not one of those "we're in a mess now and here's what you should do". Harry used the age progression and the spending progressions of every age cycle to show the difference between the spending of each age segment and followed it through to show why two nations may have the same number of people but the personal spending patterns may be totally different. This defines how each government will have to divide up the tax revenues at it's disposal. If the birth rate is very low and a large portion of the people are elderly, more of the revenue must be used for the needs of the elderly than for the teens or middle aged. After all, the elderly vote and the teens don't. Harry's conclusions that we are headed for a fiscal cliff because of a misappropriation of government funds in the past seems to be well thought out and born out by the number of aging people in the various nations and the declining birth rate. More people expecting to be paid back for decades of working and paying into a system that is technically bankrupt and fewer and fewer paying into the system. TAKE HEED AMERICA !!!
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