The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street (Anglais) Relié – 9 juin 2009
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Description du produit
Revue de presse
“Justin Fox is a truly insightful fellow who can see things with his own eyes—a rare, very rare attribute.” (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan)
“A fascinating historical narrative.” (Roger Lowenstein, The Washington Post)
“This wise and witty book is must reading for anyone who wonders what makes financial markets tick. Even those who have wrestled with this question for years will be glad to have read Fox’s compelling history.” (Peter Bernstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk)
“His analysis is singularly compelling, and the rare business history that reads like a thriller... A must-read for anyone interested in the markets, our economy or government, this dense but spellbinding work brings modern finance and economics to life.” (Publishers Weekly (starred review))
“A lucid, lively and learned account.” (Barron's)
“Fox makes business history thrilling.” (St. Louis Post-Dispatch)
“Impressively broad and richly researched.” (Financial Times)
“...a rich history of the world’s most seductive investing idea...the book chronicles the rise of rational market theory over the decades and captures the sizzle and pop of the intellectual debate ...” (Bloomberg)
“Good wonky fun.” (Barry Ritholz, The Big Picture blog)
“An intellectual tour-de-force...” (The Economist)
“Superbly accurate and readable... Clearly the result of many years of research and reading,... it is a model of what the popularization of social science can be, but too rarely is, and it will continue to be read when the current crisis is many years behind us.” (American Scientist)
“A tough, tasty steak of a book.” (Dan Neil, Los Angeles Times)
“A thoughtful, often fascinating, always illuminating history of the idea of market rationality.” (Cory Doctorow, boingboing.net)
Présentation de l'éditeur
“Do we really need yet another book about the financial crisis? Yes, we do—because this one is different….A must-read for anyone who wants to understand the mess we’re in.”
—Paul Krugman, New York Times Book Review
“Fox makes business history thrilling.”
—St. Louis Post-Dispatch
A lively history of ideas, The Myth of the Rational Market by former Time Magazine economics columnist Justin Fox, describes with insight and wit the rise and fall of the world’s most influential investing idea: the efficient markets theory. Both a New York Times bestseller and Notable Book of the Year—longlisted for the Financial Times Business Book of the Year Award and named one of Library Journal Best Business Books of the Year—The Myth of the Rational Market carries readers from the earliest days of Wall Street to the current financial crisis, debunking the long-held myth that the stock market is always right in the process while intelligently exploring the replacement theory of behavioral economics.
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Meilleurs commentaires des clients
Il nous conte l'histoire de la naissance de l'idéologie de la rationalité parfaite des marchés qui nait aux Etats-Unis au XIX° siècle. C'est l'histoire d'une combinaison entre l'attrait intellectuel pour les mathématiques et de l'argent facile qu'on peut gagner (sans travailler) sur les marchés financiers.
L'histoire du plus important des pères fondateurs, Irving Fischer est instructive: il est devenu un véritable militant de la rationalité des marchés, allant jusqu'à expliquer après le jeudi noir de 1929 que tout cela était "rationnel" et que le marché allait revenir à l'équilibre. Il sera ruiné et devra vendre sa maison à l'université qui li accordera le privilège d'y vivre jusqu'à sa mort.
Le dernier zozo en date de la rationalité est Michael Jensen qui est allé donner dans la philosophie et l'anthropologie dans un article fondateur "The nature of man" où il expliquait que l'homme était un animal rationnel fait pour échanger, calculer... blabla. Finalement, sa fille l'emmènera faire un stage dans un semi secte - Landmark Education - où il sera converti à l'importance de "l'intégrité", qui devient, depuis la crise de 2008 (déclenchée en fait dès août 2007), le leitmotiv de ses discours.
Exit la rationalité des marchés. Heureusement, nous avons encore des ânes du genre Lecaussin ou Laine pour nous expliquer contre vents et marées que les marchés sont toujours rationnels!
Ce livre, écrit en bon anglais clair à lire (pas le globish ânonné par les mondialistes), gagne à être lu avec le travail de fond de Harold James The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle.
Commentaires client les plus utiles sur Amazon.com
Just one technical mistake that I could find: In chapter 13, Fox shows his lack of math training when he explains that 1/10^160 is "a couple billion billion," which made me snort a noseful of cappuchino onto my iPad.
I hope business schools and economics departments will make good use of this book. The world is a complex place. The stock market is not a cause-and-effect machine, any more than people are. A broad perspective helps prevent us from making stupid mistakes.
The book starts out discussing the modern beginning of financial economics with Irving Fisher. It introduces in chronological order people who started using statistics and data mining to examine properties of asset pricing. The first instances of random walk properties of bonds are discussed with Macaulay (from macaulay duration). The book makes a quick transition to Markowitz who introduces portfolio theory as a natural outgrowth of expertise gained from mastering optimization under uncertainty in the second world war. Ideas from CAPM and efficient market theory are discussed in historical context and the momentum of academic belief in the approach. The book then starts to focus on practical reality and the interplay between academics and industry is discussed with analysis of mutual fund returns, the rights of shareholders being a stick to reduce agency problems and in a certain sense it is a discussion of how aggregate behaviour can be seen to enforce the efficient market. As the book follows history in its actual sequence of events, with the 70s being a period in which markets performed abnormally to a certain extent, financial scholars began to question their assumptions and market failure is considered by many top academics. One can sense the growing disagreement in academic finance. The book continues into the modern financial era and discusses the change of belief of many of the efficient markets biggest proponents. Strong evidence is shown to allow for statistical anomolies in financial prices over time that dispute the efficient market convincingly. At the same time, mistakes of the past are rarely the mistakes of the future and so mispricings are not persistent. In addition examples of where mispricings lasted for longer than holders could hold are examined, in particular LTCM is discussed.
The Myth of the Rational Market is a nice historical account of academic thought on financial economics and the assumptions of academics about financial markets. Through historical account the reader sees the evolution of thought and the reasoning behind both the formation and subsequent changes in beliefs. It is both readable and informative and through the account the author basically argues that today people belief that markets might not be efficient, but there is no arbitrage. I recommend it as a colorful history of modern financial economics.
These questions and many more are examined in this urbane, candid history of men and money. Fox navigates the troubled waters of the Street and the Academy with skill, giving credit where it is due but not hesitating to point out the Emperor's knickers around his royal ankles. The only disappointment to me was the discovery that there is no method of stock valuation for the side of the argument which maintains the irregularity of the market; there is no Black&Scholes for the unbeliever. But maybe that fact is indicative of the truth that, in the end, you really do have to choose between precise ambiguity and vague truth.
And this book whispers an unsettling memento mori into the ear of the aspiring business leader: it doesn't matter which lens you choose, because in the end the view is the same through both of them...
Great read, drills down relentlessly into the annals of time and pressure and personalities and opportunities and Other People's Money, to come up with timeless observations about finance and philosophy.
The problem is that Justin Fox goes into far too much detail; the theories that were put forward and the names of the people involved in them. I thought of abandoning the book several times (usual for me), but I'm glad I didn't. The Epilogue is well worth reading for an overview of what these people (the economists), who thing they are scientists on a par with chemists and physicists, have done, and continue to do, to the detriment of the famous 'man in the street'.