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The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy (Anglais) Relié – 15 mai 2012
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Description du produit
Revue de presse
The book is well worth reading for its analysis. (The Economist, 7th July 2012)
′Contains a fascinating and powerful diagnosis of how we got to our current pass...he makes an astonishing proposal at the end that made my jaw drop.′ (Wealthbriefing.com, 14th August 2012)
Présentation de l'éditeur
When the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth ceased to be driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic. In The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy, Richard Duncan introduces an analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its causes, the rationale for the government′s policy response to the crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will affect asset prices and investment portfolios.
In his previous book, The Dollar Crisis (2003), Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was inevitable given the flaws in the post–Bretton Woods international monetary system, and now he′s back to explain what′s next. The economic system that emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional debt and the government′s creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly. Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable, and this book describes what must be done to prevent it.
- Presents a fascinating look inside the financial crisis and how the New Depression is poised to become a New Great Depression
- Introduces a new theoretical construct, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that is the key to understanding not only the developments that led to the crisis, but also to understanding how events will play out in the years ahead
- Offers unique insights from the man who predicted the global economic breakdown
Alarming but essential reading, The New Depression explains why the global economy is teetering on the brink of falling into a deep and protracted depression, and how we can restore stability.
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Commentaires client les plus utiles sur Amazon.com
This tightly written 179 page exposition explains the credit based economy since 1968. This book brings it all together and explains how we arrived at the economic ledge and the limited policy options remaining. Duncan starts by quickly showing how the expansion of credit has driven our economic growth. America continued it's economic expansion after leaving the gold standard by switching to an economy of credit/spending from saving/investing. It explains America's financial relationship with China/Asia and how we're all in this together and none are without sin. The progression he presents is absolutely convincing and sweeps away the confusion and incompleteness of the piecemeal theories that dominate financial market discussions. This understanding is monumentally important to the investor who stands stunned looking at a world of negative interest rates and wondering about inflation versus deflation. It's truly a matter of financial survival for many of us.
This book is not about blame or angry opinion but a mature and rational analysis. Terrible policy decisions were made in the past. The continuum of folly brought us to the credit collapse of 2008. Duncan places you in the shoes of the Fed chairman and the Treasury Secretary as they stand on the ledge discussing what to do next. Shocked themselves, they wonder what is politically possible and how much time have we left. Want to be the fly on the wall and hear the truth? Get the book. Worth every nickel.
I read Duncan's short book quickly and although I am not an economics expert, from a layman's point of view, I recommend it highly because he sets forth the difficult problem he sees facing the world economy in a clear and convincing way that stays focused. The bottom line as he sees it is that we are not engaging our political discourse around solving our 50 trillion dollar debt problem.
He calls for a particular kind of political leadership from Washington that I think could be likened to President Kennedy's call in the early sixties to land a man on the moon by the end of that decade. Everyone knows the economic benefits that program threw off. It was a relatively small effort, as compared to what we need to do now, but the idea is to stop bickering and get political agreement: what we really need is to launch a far more ambitious government-sponsored advanced technology investment program right now, not later. The government can borrow the money at low rates now and if it's invested intelligently, it's possible we can get out of the mess we find ourselves in. Admittedly, that's a lot of "ifs" but there's also some hope with this kind of an approach.
The consequences of continuing on our present course without doing something like he proposes will be nothing short of disastrous for everyone, that is, hyper-inflation, severe deflation, or both, followed by political upheavals including the possibility of war such as followed the last depression.
You can also see a video of a recent presentation by Duncan at his webpage delivered to an Asian audience: [...]