SAS for Forecasting Time Series (Anglais) Broché – 30 juin 2003
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Description du produit
Revue de presse
Taking a tutorial approach, the authors focus on procedures that most effectively bring results (Zentralblatt MATH, April 2007)
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Commentaires client les plus utiles sur Amazon.com
The problem is not the statistical content, which is quite reliable, but rather than explanatory style. Chapters are disorganized, with many ideas introduced before being explained. Furthermore, the authors have adopted an unfortunate habit of constantly referring to "you" (i.e., the reader). "You" will do this. "You" will decide to do that. In many case, it was far from clear why such decisions would be made.
The most serious problem, though, is the treatment of SAS code. This is supposed to be a book about ideas AND about syntax. But code is repeatedly presented with any kind of line-by-line explantion. Readers ("you" again) are left to wonder what the various elements of code mean, and how they control the computations done.
I was very disappointed with this book. Unfortunately, the only alternative is to use the SAS documentation, and that's not really a very good alternative.
My only disappointment with this manual was the lack of an entire chapter on forecast accuracy. Four pages of references did not include a single reference to articles about forecasting competitions. The authors could have: (1) held back recent data in their examples (2) made forecasts with their best models (3) explained how to identify significant changes over time in error terms, standard errors, and in correlations (4) explained when and how to re-calculate model parameters (5) discussed the choice of unbiased forecast accuracy measures for comparing forecasts from ARIMA and regression models.