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Irrational Exuberance – Revised and Expanded 3e Relié – 6 janvier 2015
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In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, now cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008-9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices in the United States, and rising housing prices in many countries, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever.
But Irrational Exuberance is about something far more important than the current situation in any given market because the book explains the forces that move all markets up and down. It shows how investor euphoria can drive asset prices up to dizzying and unsustainable heights, and how, at other times, investor discouragement can push prices down to very low levels.
Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets--and famously predicted their crashes. This new edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. This edition also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which puts the book in broader context.
In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity--and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read it.
For more information, including new developments and regular data updates, please go to www.irrationalexuberance.com
- Nombre de pages de l'édition imprimée376 pages
- LangueAnglais
- ÉditeurPrinceton University Press
- Date de publication6 janvier 2015
- Dimensions17.15 x 3.81 x 24.77 cm
- ISBN-100691166269
- ISBN-13978-0691166261
Description du produit
Revue de presse
Winner of the 2000 Commonfund Prize for the Best Contribution to Endowment Management Research
Praise for the previous edition: From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Robert J. Shiller . . . has done more than any other economist of his generation to document the less rational aspects of financial markets."--Paul Krugman, New York Times
Praise for the previous edition: From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Irrational Exuberance is not just a prophecy of doom. . . . [I]t is a serious attempt to explain how speculative bubbles come about and how they sustain themselves."--John Cassidy, New Yorker
Praise for the previous edition: From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Informative and well-argued . . . A calm and reasonable antidote to today's euphoria."--Jeff Madrick, New York Review of Books
Praise for the previous edition: From review of Princeton's previous edition: "What set off this speculation and what feeds it? Shiller ranges widely his explanations, laying them out in the first 168 pages in easy-to-read, sometimes passionate prose. . . . [T]hose first 168 pages are must reading for anyone with savings invested in stocks."--Louis Uchitelle, New York Times Book Review
Praise for the previous edition: From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Mr. Shiller's book offers a dose of realism. . . . [I]t presents a message investors would be wise to head: Make sure your portfolio is adequately diversified. Save more and don't count on double-digit gains of the past decades continuing to bail you out during retirement."--Burton G. Malkiel, Wall Street Journal
Praise for the previous edition: From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Although its message may be unwelcome to many, this important book should be read by anyone interested in economics or the stock markets."--Rene M. Stulz, Science
Praise for the previous edition: From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Dazzling, richly textured, provocative . . By far the most important book about the stock market since Jeremy J. Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run."--William Wolman, Business Week
Praise for the previous edition: From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Shiller has provided an accessible guide to the usually impenetrable literature on financial markets, especially the American stock market."--Foreign Affairs
Praise for the previous edition: From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Shiller contends that investor psychology is so given to herd behavior that it's almost impossible to manipulate or even influence. The market can 'go through significant mispricing lasting years or even decades.'"--Robert J. Samuelson, Washington Post
Praise for the previous edition: From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Irrational Exuberance should be compulsory reading for anybody interested in Wall Street or financially exposed to it; at the moment, that would be roughly everybody in the United States."--Economist
Praise for the previous edition: From review of Princeton's previous edition: "[An] excellent new book. . . . If you want to preserve capital, unload most of your stocks and invest in government bonds."--Steve H. Hanke, Forbes
Praise for the previous edition: From review of Princeton's previous edition: "Likely to be the year's most-talked-about finance book. . . . You can agree or disagree with it. But you owe it to yourself to read it if you are investing i --William Wolman, Business Week
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Détails sur le produit
- Éditeur : Princeton University Press; 3e édition (6 janvier 2015)
- Langue : Anglais
- Relié : 376 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0691166269
- ISBN-13 : 978-0691166261
- Dimensions : 17.15 x 3.81 x 24.77 cm
- Classement des meilleures ventes d'Amazon : 4,352 en Histoire économique (Livres)
- 14,611 en Bourse et finance
- 852,243 en Anglais
- Commentaires client :
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The basic thesis of the book is that efficient market hypothesis does not explain periods in which stock prices far exceed fundamentals, such as future corporate earnings; ie periods of high P/E. He argues that the excess is driven by “psychology.” He uses research from behavioral economics to argue that many people have cognitive biases that cause them to make errors in investing, such as overconfidence and new era thinking. He believes that the financial industry perpetuates a belief that the market will always go up, but finds several historical periods in which this is not accurate for decades. He also discusses the affect of feedback loops in the continued rise of prices. Truly a fascinating book to me, as a total lay person in the investment space.
In part one, he discusses what he calls "structural factors." These include various precipitating factors such as the introduction of the internet in providing ready access to market information, news, and online trading. He actually lists twelve precipitating factors that propelled the millennium boom (1982-2000). He then proceeds to list some precipitating factors the propelled the ownership-society boom (2003-2007). The professor notes how "one may be struck by the sheer multiplicity of factors that appear to have been at work" in the three recent booms in the stock, bond, and real estate markets.
In part two, Professor Shiller discusses cultural factors that affect the markets. These include the role of the media in the moves of the stock market, such as their role in propagating speculative bubbles. He also analyzes the news and how it relates to the crashes of 1929 and 1987. You may find this analysis interesting. He then discusses a concept called "New Era Theories," and their effect on the markets. The discussion is broken down into various time periods: the 1901 optimism, the 1920's optimism, new era thinking in the 50's and 60's and the 90's. He concludes this section with a history of new eras and bubbles around the world. Seeing these large stock market moves in other countries, Shiller notes that "speculative bubbles - periods of exaggerated but temporary investor enthusiasm, often associated with `new era' theories - are in fact commonplace." The final chapter of this section is replete with many tables showing stock market price shifts over various time periods around the world.
Part three delves into the psychological factors affecting the markets. We learn here about two kinds of psychological anchors: quantitative and moral. A chapter is devoted to theories of herd behavior as well.
In part four, he explains the "attempts to rationalize exuberance." Are markets efficient, and are prices random walks? What is the effect of "smart money"? What is mispricing? What is the relationship between price/earnings ratios and long term returns?
He concludes by saying that the high stock market levels are not the consensus judgment of various "experts" who have carefully analyzed the data. No, they have been high "because of the combined effect to indifferent thinking by millions of people, very few of whom have felt the need to perform careful research on long-term investment value, and who are motivated substantially by their own emotions, random attentions, and perceptions of conventional wisdom." He follows with some suggestions on what can be done to reduce market volatility and encourage proper risk management among the public, polices about saving and retirement planning, and being realistic about bubbles, among other things. The appendix contains his Nobel Prize lecture on Speculative Asset Prices.
I'd say it is definitely worth reading to get a handle on what makes the markets tick.
Oddly enough, both books were compelling and believable. The reasons that this is odd is mostly because one would think that they are diametrically opposed. The entire argument of Malkiel is that you can’t beat the markets consistently, so the best bet is to get into index. This is an acceptance of part of the efficient market hypothesis, where there is no free lunch and arbitrage opportunities disappear and are not predictable.
I can be into Shiller too because there is another part of the EMF that says that market prices are the right prices, so the value of the market is the true value of the market. If this is true there should never be any bubbles. You should also never be able to short sell anything unless you had inside information. But alas, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid. Bubbles do happen, in all markets and everywhere. Shiller got a bit lucky by having the first edition of this book come out at the point where the dot com bubble was right at the top. Those who had gone all in on technology were not as lucky. As Shiller examines. bubbles can and do happen.
So how can I reconcile the fact that the EMF is the tool I rely on for investing even though I have full knowledge that bubbles happen and massive dollar amounts are lost in them? I answer by saying that the markets are rational enough. Bubble happen, but it is hard to know when you’re in them and you can’t time them. The prominent economist who called the housing bubble beforehand are small in number. If they were calling it, they were dismissed as bearish or too heterodox. Too many people had failed to read their Kindleberger. This time wasn’t different and the bubble popped. Harder to know is when it will pop and at what level. That’s where the EMF works. When it pops, you’re going down with it, but so will everyone else. It makes me think of a couple of quotes. First, Keynes: “Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally,” and then Citi’s Chuck Prince approps the last bubble: “As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance”. Sure, if you were in the main indices you lost half the value of your investments. Of course if you stayed in them you made them all back. Now imagine if you had put all your money into junior tranches of residential mortgage backed securities -- it seemed like a sure thing, but you would have ended up with nothing. It’s not perfect, but the market is efficient -- enough.
Will history repeat itself with this third volume? That is hard to say. In this latest edition, Professor Shiller updates his argument, and augments the text to reflect developments since the 2005 second edition. Of particular interest, he adds an important new chapter on the bond market, which many feel is also in bubble territory. The good news is that, while Professor Shiller says that returns in all asset classes are likely to be subpar for some years given today's elevated asset prices, the mood is less somber than in previous editions, and there are no warnings of imminent doom, as in previous editions. In particular, he does not see a classic "bubble" in bonds, due to the lack of "exuberance" -- prices for bonds are being bid up reluctantly by investors, he says, which is not the formula for a bubble. However, he certainly balances that somewhat comforting news with a realistic view of the risks that the current situation presents to investors and savers of all types, stocks, bonds, housing, and savings accounts. His main piece of advice to all Americans concerned about their financial future may be the most sensible piece of financial advice ever written: spend less, save more! Yes, we all know that, but when the winner of the 2013 Nobel prize says that, it really means something.
I find Professor Shiller's writing style highly enjoyable, not at all like most economics books. The plain-spoken style is smart, wry, and often witty, and there are almost no mathematical formulas, except in the occasional technical notes in back. The book also talks about a lot of factors that are intrinsically interesting to non-economists. For example, it has chapters devoted cultural factors in investing; the effects of the news media; "new era" economic thinking; psychological factors; psychological anchors for the market and herd behavior.
Professor Shiller ends by offering a lot of good, commonsense advice to both policymakers and investors, large and small. I highly recommend this book to anyone who wants to understand what's behind the current anxiety, turmoil, and hopes, for a brighter financial future for all Americans.
With this said, the reason I give it four stars is because the book is somewhat difficult to digest at times; the points made are subtle and may require a second or third read-through in order to gain some real insights that one will remember after finishing up the 237-page main text followed by 32-page appendix which is the author's Nobel prize speech. The casual reader might be bored by the charts and the descriptions of the tools used to discuss the market price dynamics which are the focal point of the text. With this said, the appendix is definitely geared toward the reader with an academic background in research related to financial markets. I debated whether to give the book five stars purely on the scholarship involved and the value of the text for investors, but with a five-point system on Amazon it leaves much less room to be accurate in rating (I'd give this 9 out of 10 on a ten-point scale).